Commitment or discretion? An empirical investigation of monetary policy preferences in China

Liu Ding; Zhang Yue; Sun Weihong

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Commitment or discretion? An empirical investigation of monetary policy preferences in China

机译：承担还是酌情权？中国货币政策偏好的实证研究

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This paper offers a first attempt to estimate the policy preferences of China's central bank by confronting a small-scale microfounded New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is described by commitment or discretion with the Chinese macroeconomic data over the period from 1992Q2 to 2017Q4. Bayesian model comparison reveals that the data favor discretionary monetary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights under both cases show that the leading policy goal is price stability, followed by output stability and then interest rate smoothing. Finally, through counterfactual analyses we assess how macroeconomic outcomes might improve, had the Chinese central bank been able to commit. These findings shed new light on the opaque Chinese monetary policy, and are robust to subsample analysis.

机译：本文首次尝试通过面对小型微观基础的新凯恩斯主义模型来估计中国中央银行的政策偏好，在该模型中，货币政策通过承诺或酌情权描述了1992年第二季度至2017年第四季度期间的中国宏观经济数据。贝叶斯模型比较表明，该数据有利于全权委托货币政策。两种情况下损失函数权重的估计表明，首要的政策目标是价格稳定，其次是产出稳定，然后是利率平滑。最后，通过反事实分析，我们评估了如果中国央行能够做出承诺，宏观经济成果将如何改善。这些发现为不透明的中国货币政策提供了新的启示，并且对子样本分析具有鲁棒性。

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来源
《Economic modelling》 |2020年第2期|409-419|共11页
作者
Liu Ding; Zhang Yue; Sun Weihong;
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作者单位

Southwestern Univ Finance & Econ Sch Econ Room 1001 Gezhi Bldg 555 Liutai Ave Chengdu 611130 Sichuan Peoples R China;

Southwestern Univ Finance & Econ Sch Finance 555 Liutai Ave Chengdu 611130 Sichuan Peoples R China;

Southwestern Univ Finance & Econ West Ctr Econ Res 555 Liutai Ave Chengdu 611130 Sichuan Peoples R China;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Commitment; Discretion; New keynesian model; Optimal monetary policy; China;

机译：承诺;自由裁量权;新的凯恩斯主义模型;最优货币政策;中国;

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专利

1. Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union [J] . Avinash Dixit, Luisa Lambertini European Economic Review . 2001,第4a6期

机译：货币联盟中的货币－财政政策互动以及承诺与自由裁量权
2. Commitment versus discretion in a political economy model of fiscal and monetary policy interaction [J] . Miller David S. Journal of Monetary Economics . 2016,第DECa期

机译：财政和货币政策互动的政治经济学模型中的承诺与自由裁量权
3. Monetary Commitment and Fiscal Discretion:The Optimal Policy Mix [J] . Stefano Gnocchi American economic journal . 2013,第2期

机译：货币承诺与财政自由裁量：最优政策组合
4. An Empirical Study on the Measurement of Monetary Policy Rules and Discretion Shocks in China [C] . YUAN Jing 2008年国际应用统计学术研讨会（2008 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies）论文集 . 2008

机译：中国货币政策规则和自由裁量冲击测度的实证研究
5. An empirical investigation of preferences over sequences of outcomes and applications in the monetary, environmental and health domains: A decision analysis approach. [D] . Guyse, Jeffery Lee. 2000

机译：在货币，环境和卫生领域对结果和应用序列偏好的实证研究：决策分析方法。
6. Do health policy advisors know what the public wants? An empirical comparison of how health policy advisors assess public preferences regarding smoke-free air and what the public actually prefers [O] . Laura J Rosen, David A Rier, Greg Connolly, 2013

机译：卫生政策顾问是否知道公众想要什么？卫生政策顾问如何评估公众对无烟空气的偏好以及公众实际偏好的实证比较
7. Commitment vs. Discretion in the UK: An Empirical Investigation of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regime [O] . Kirsanova Tatiana, le Roux Stephanus 2013

机译：英国的承诺与自由裁量：货币和财政政策体制的实证研究

Commitment or discretion? An empirical investigation of monetary policy preferences in China

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