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Europe

机译:欧洲

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摘要

Given the surge in inflation to 2.5% in September, the ECB may feel its tendency to see inflationary danger at every turn is justified. And although interest rates were held at 2% at the start of October, the bank has upped its rhetoric, referring to the need for "strong vigilance" on inflation. September's rise in prices was higher than expected, even given the peak in oil prices near $70 pb last month. But core inflation - at 1.3% in August - is pretty tame. We still expect the ECB to hold tight until better growth comes along; with growth on an annualised basis not hitting the trend rate of around 2%pa until 2006Q3 in our forecast, the first rise could still be nearly a year away.
机译:鉴于9月份通货膨胀率飙升至2.5%,欧洲央行可能会认为其动every看到通货膨胀危险的趋势是合理的。尽管利率在10月初维持在2%,但该银行提高了言论,指的是需要对通货膨胀“保持高度警惕”。即使考虑到上个月油价接近每桶70美元,9月份的价格上涨也高于预期。但是核心通胀率(8月份为1.3%)相当温和。我们仍然预计欧洲央行将保持紧缩,直到出现更好的增长。在我们预测的2006年第3季度之前,按年率计算的增长率不会达到每年2%左右的趋势速度,因此首次增长可能还需要将近一年的时间。

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