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China and the UK Economy

机译：中英经济

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China's boom has been a major pillar of the global economic recovery from early 2002 onwards. However, earlier this year fears that the economic boom was threatening to run out of control prompted the Chinese authorities to implement a number of targeted measures to try to restrain activity in the most overheated sectors. This article by Simon Knapp discusses both how much the UK has benefited from the China boom and how much it might be affected if the Chinese slowdown now becomes a hard landing. It argues that emerging Asia, Japan and raw materials producers have been the principal beneficiaries of the China boom, while the UK's gains have been small, because exports to the whole of Asia only account for 9% of the total. Equally, looking forward, the UK, and the UK's two major trading partners, the US and Eurozone, would only be relatively lightly affected if Chinese growth decelerated rapidly, as they would be helped by offsets such as lower oil prices and a lower interest rate profile. However, the current evidence suggests that the Chinese economy is slowing down in broadly the way the government wants, with the greatest deceleration in the previously overheated sectors but relatively little impact on the export and consumer sectors. An abrupt halt in bank lending could, however, still pose a significant downside risk.
机译：从2002年初开始，中国的繁荣一直是全球经济复苏的主要支柱。然而，今年早些时候，人们担心经济繁荣可能失控，促使中国当局采取了一些有针对性的措施，试图限制过热程度最高的行业的活动。西蒙·纳普（Simon Knapp）的这篇文章既讨论了英国从中国经济繁荣中受益的内容，又讨论了如果中国现在的经济放缓成为硬着陆可能对英国带来的影响。报告认为，亚洲新兴市场，日本和原材料生产商一直是中国经济繁荣的主要受益者，而英国的收益却很小，因为对整个亚洲的出口仅占总额的9％。同样，展望未来，英国以及英国的两个主要贸易伙伴美国和欧元区，如果中国的增长迅速减速，只会受到相对较小的影响，因为油价下跌和利率降低等抵消将帮助英国轮廓。但是，目前的证据表明，中国经济正在以政府希望的方式在总体上放缓，在先前过热的行业中减速最大，但对出口和消费部门的影响相对较小。但是，突然停止银行贷款仍然可能带来巨大的下行风险。

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