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Can House Prices Remain So High?

机译:房价能保持这么高吗?

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House prices are rarely out of the headlines in the UK and continue to be a national obsession. But, for an asset that is so important in household portfolios, regrettably, the standard of economic analysis is often extremely poor, ignoring even the most basic economic theory and empirical evidence. In this article, Geoff Meen assesses the dangers of a collapse in house prices. A more dispassionate look at the evidence suggests that, at the national level, there is little evidence of a serious problem. This remains the case when we move to the regional level. However, we would suggest, on the basis of preliminary evidence, that certain areas of London could be over-valued. If any market is to decline, this would be our first bet. But it does not follow that the rest of the country will also decline.
机译:房价在英国很少成为头条新闻,并且仍然是全国性的痴迷。但是,令人遗憾的是,对于一种在家庭投资组合中如此重要的资产,经济分析的标准通常非常差,甚至连最基本的经济学理论和经验证据都忽略了。在本文中,Geoff Meen评估了房价暴跌的危险。对证据的更为冷静的看法表明,在国家一级,几乎没有证据表明存在严重问题。当我们移至区域一级时,情况依然如此。但是,根据初步证据,我们建议伦敦的某些地区可能被高估。如果有任何市场要下跌,这将是我们的第一个选择。但这并不能说明该国其他地区也会衰落。

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