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War and the global economy

机译:战争与全球经济

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Recent months have seen the adoption of an increasingly belligerent stance towards Iraq on the parts of the US and the UK in particular, signalling a shift from the policy of containment that has been in place since the last Gulf War, and towards a more aggressive policy. As yet, it is unclear whether this increased belligerence will culminate in a renewed full-scale military engagement with Iraq, to achieve the much vaunted 'regime change', or whether the outcome will be an agreement to a new programme of weapons inspections. But the risk of a military conflict appears to have increased. This article assesses the potential economic implications of such a conflict, exploring different scenarios for how it might evolve, and their impact on oil prices and global growth.
机译:近几个月来,特别是在美国和英国,对伊拉克采取了越来越好战的立场,这标志着从上次海湾战争以来一直实行的遏制政策,转向了更具侵略性的政策。 。到目前为止,还不清楚这种增加的交战是否会导致与伊拉克重新进行全面军事接触,实现大肆吹嘘的“政权更迭”,或者结果是否将达成一项新的武器检查计划。但是,发生军事冲突的风险似乎有所增加。本文评估了这种冲突的潜在经济影响,探讨了冲突如何演变的不同情况,以及它们对石油价格和全球增长的影响。

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