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首页> 外文期刊>Economics & philosophy >WAR OR PEACE?: A DYNAMICAL ANALYSIS OF ANARCHY
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WAR OR PEACE?: A DYNAMICAL ANALYSIS OF ANARCHY

机译：战争还是和平？：对无政府状态的动态分析

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I propose a dynamical analysis of interaction in anarchy, and argue that this kind of dynamical analysis is a more promising route to predicting the outcome of anarchy than the more traditional a priori analyses of anarchy in the literature. I criticize previous a priori analyses of anarchy on the grounds that these analyses assume that the individuals in anarchy share a unique set of preferences over the possible outcomes of war, peace, exploiting others and suffering exploitation. Following Hobbes' classic analysis of anarchy, I maintain that typically in anarchy some moderate individuals will most desire mutual cooperation while other dominators will most desire to exploit others' cooperation. I argue that once one allows for different types of individuals in anarchy, any a priori analysis of anarchy requires unrealistic assumptions regarding the agents' common knowledge of their situation. However, this move also suggests a dynamical analysis of anarchy, one that assumes no common knowledge. In the Variable Anticipation threshold model developed here, individuals modify their behavior as they learn from repeated interactions. I present specific instances of this model where the individuals in anarchy converge to different equilibria corresponding to either peace or war, depending on the initial conditions. I show that individuals are liable to converge to Hobbes' war of all against all even if only a small percentage of are dominators. The presence of only a few "nasty" individuals gradually drives all, including those inclined to be "nicer", to imitate the "nasty" conduct of these few. This dynamic analysis suggests that the Hobbesian war in anarchy is indeed inevitable in most realistic circumstances. You have the same propension, that I have, in favor of what is contiguous above what is remote. You are, therefore, naturally carry'd to commit acts of injustice as well as I. Your example both pushes me forward in this way by imitation, and also affords me a new reason for any breach of equity, by showing me, that I shou'd be the cully of my integrity, if I alone shou'd impose on myself a severe restraint amidst the licentiousness of others.
机译：我提出了一种对无政府状态中的相互作用进行动力学分析，并认为这种动力学分析是比无政府状态中传统的先验性分析更有前景的预测无政府状态结果的途径。我批评先前对无政府状态的先验分析，理由是这些分析假设无政府状态的个人对战争，和平，剥削他人和遭受剥削可能产生的结果具有独特的偏好集。根据霍布斯对无政府状态的经典分析，我坚持认为，在无政府状态下，一些温和的个人最希望相互合作，而其他支配者则最希望利用他人的合作。我认为，一旦允许无政府状态的不同类型的个体，对无政府状态的任何先验分析都需要关于代理人对其处境的常识的不切实际的假设。但是，这一举动也暗示了对无政府状态的动态分析，这种无状态假设不具有常识。在此处开发的“可变预期”阈值模型中，个人会从反复的交互中学习，从而改变自己的行为。我介绍了该模型的特定实例，其中无政府状态的个体根据初始条件收敛到与和平或战争相对应的不同均衡。我表明，即使只有很小一部分是主宰者，个人也有可能趋向于霍布斯对所有人的战争。只有少数“讨厌”的人的存在逐渐驱使所有人，包括那些倾向于“更狡猾”的人，以模仿这几个人的“讨厌”行为。这种动态分析表明，在大多数现实情况下，霍布斯无政府主义战争的确是不可避免的。您拥有与我相同的倾向，赞成连续的事物高于遥远的事物。因此，您自然会承担与我一样的不公正行为。您的榜样既以模仿的方式推动了我的前进，又向我展示了任何违反公平的理由，向我展示了我如果我一个人在别人的放纵中对自己施加严格的约束，那他将是我正直的榜样。

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