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Narrative fragmentation and the business cycle

机译:叙事碎片和商业周期

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摘要

According to Shiller (2017), economic and financial narratives often emerge as a consequence of their virality, rather than their veracity, and constitute an important, but understudied driver of aggregate fluctuations. Using a unique dataset of newspaper articles over the 1950-2019 period and state-ofthe-art methods from natural language processing, we characterize the properties of business cycle narratives. Our main finding is that narratives tend to consolidate around a dominant explanation during expansions and fragment into competing explanations during contractions. We also show that the existence of past reference events is strongly associated with increased narrative consolidation. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译:根据Shiller(2017年),经济和金融叙述经常因其病毒而不是他们的真实性而出现,而是构成一个重要但被解读的总体波动驾驶员。 在1950 - 2019年期间使用的报纸文章的独特数据集和来自自然语言处理的最先进方法,我们描绘了商业周期叙述的属性。 我们的主要发现是,在缩放期间,叙述倾向于在扩张和片段期间巩固主导解释。 我们还表明过去参考事件的存在与增加的叙述整合强烈关联。 (c)2021 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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