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Unsteady states

机译：不稳定状态

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FOR MOST governments the pandemic is expensive. For America's states, counties and cities, which provide the bulk of the country's basic government services, it is a budgetary cataclysm. Lockdowns are depriving them of tax revenues just as they must spend more on public health, threatening budget shortfalls of more than one-quarter of annual revenues (see Finance section). Investors have been dumping their bonds, making it harder to borrow. And many states are in any case required by their constitution or by law to balance their budgets, or forbidden from borrowing at all. As a result many have been drawing up plans to slash spending and lay off workers just when their services are in high demand and the economy is shrinking. The states do have some cash stashed away for a rainy day. They have built up funds worth 8% of their annual routine spending, on average. Yet that will not be nearly enough for today's deluge, and in any case it is unevenly distributed. In 11 states, including hard-hit New York, rainy-day funds are less than 5% of spending. Infusions from the federal government are therefore the only way to avoid ill-timed austerity. The states could need as much as $650bn (3% of gdp) to cope with the economic crash-and more to help them fight the pandemic.
机译：对于大多数政府而言，这种流行病是昂贵的。对于提供大部分基本政府服务的美国各州，县和城市来说，这是一场预算灾难。封锁使他们失去了税收收入，就像他们必须在公共卫生上花更多的钱一样，威胁到预算缺口超过年度收入的四分之一（请参阅“财务”部分）。投资者一直在抛售其债券，这使借款变得更加困难。在任何情况下，宪法或法律都要求许多州平衡预算，或者根本禁止借款。结果，许多人已经制定了削减开支的计划，只是在工人的服务需求旺盛和经济萎缩之时解雇他们。各州确实有一些现金被藏起来以备不时之需。他们积累的资金平均相当于其年度例行支出的8％。但是，对于今天的洪水来说，这还远远不够，无论如何它分布不均。在包括重灾区纽约在内的11个州中，雨天资金不到支出的5％。因此，联邦政府的注资是避免不合时宜的紧缩政策的唯一途径。各州可能需要多达6500亿美元（占GDP的3％）来应对经济崩溃-还要更多资金来帮助他们应对这种流行病。

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    《The economist》 |2020年第9192期|9-9|共1页
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