Right on target

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Right on target

机译：就在目标上

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It all seems a little too perfect to be true. The Chinese government set a growth target of "about 7%" this year; the economy, ever responsive to the Communist Party's needs, has hit exactly that number for two quarters in a row. Cue a chorus of scepticism. The first quarter did look suspicious. Growth in industrial production was the weakest since the depths of the financial crisis; the property market, a pillar of the economy, crumbled. China reported real growth (ie, after accounting for inflation) of 7% year on year in the first quarter, but nominal growth of just 5.8%. The only way to arrive at the higher real figure was to put the gdp deflator, a measure of inflation, at -1.1%. That implied the economy suffered broad-based deflation, a bizarre claim given that consumer prices rose by more than 1% at the same time. Had the gdp deflator been more accurate, Chang Liu and Mark Williams of Capital Economics reckon, real growth in the first quarter would have been one or two percentage points lower.

机译：似乎一切都太完美了，难以置信。中国政府将今年的增长目标定为“ 7％”。经济一直对共产党的需求做出反应，已经连续两个季度达到了这个数字。引起一群怀疑论者。第一季度确实令人怀疑。自金融危机以来，工业生产增长最弱。作为经济支柱的房地产市场崩溃了。中国报告第一季度的实际增长（即扣除通货膨胀因素后）同比增长7％，但名义增长仅为5.8％。达到较高实际数字的唯一方法是将衡量通货膨胀的gdp缩减指数设定为-1.1％。这意味着经济遭受了广泛的通货紧缩，鉴于消费者价格同时上涨了1％以上，这是一个奇怪的说法。 Capital Economics的Chang Liu和Mark Williams认为，如果gdp平减指数更准确，那么第一季度的实际增长将降低一两个百分点。

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《The economist》 |2015年第8947期|62-62|共1页
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