A natural long-term rate

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A natural long-term rate

机译：自然长期利率

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When Federal Reserve officials released their latest round of economic projections last month, they included a striking revelation. Three years from now, the Fed reckons, America will be back at full employment with a jobless rate very close to its long-term level of about 5.5%. Yet monetary policy will still be exceptionally easy, by historical standards. Fed officials reckon the federal-funds rate will be just 2% by the end of 2016, zero in real terms. In previous decades, real rates ranged from 1% to 5% when unemployment was that low.

机译：美联储（Fed）官员上个月发布了最新一轮的经济预测时，其中包含了惊人的启示。美联储估计，从现在起的三年后，美国将恢复充分就业，其失业率将非常接近其长期水平（约5.5％）。然而，按照历史标准，货币政策仍将格外容易。美联储官员估计，到2016年底，联邦基金利率将仅为2％，实际价值为零。在过去的几十年中，失业率如此之低，实际利率从1％到5％不等。

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《The economist》 |2013年第8859期|81-81|共1页
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7. Long-term organic carbon turnover rates in natural and semi-natural topsoils [O] . Mills, Robert T. E., Tipping, Edward, Bryant, C. L., 2014

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A natural long-term rate

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