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First, the good news: China, the country at the centre of the debate about global imbalances, has a current-account surplus that has fallen sharply over the past few years. Now the bad: China was never really the prime culprit when it comes to imbalances at the global level. The biggest counterpart to America's current-account deficit is the combined surplus of oil-exporting economies, which have enjoyed a huge windfall from high oil prices (see left-hand chart). This year the imf expects them to run a record surplus of $740 billion, three-fifths of which will come from the Middle East. That will dwarf China's expected surplus of $180 billion. Since 2000 the cumulative surpluses of oil exporters have come to over $4 trillion, twice as much as that of China. One reason why this enormous stash has received much less attention than China's is that only a fraction of it has gone into official reserves. Most of it is in opaque government investment funds. Middle Eastern purchases of Treasury bonds are often channelled through intermediaries in London, hiding their true ownership. A lot of money has been invested in equities, hedge funds, private equity and property, where ownership is harder to track. Oil exporters' surpluses are also proving much more durable than those accumulated after previous oil-price shocks. This is partly because the tightness of oil supplies has kept prices high, and partly because oil exporters have spent less of their windfalls on imports than in previous booms.
机译：首先，这是个好消息：处于全球失衡争论中心的中国，其经常账户盈余在过去几年中急剧下降。现在的坏处是：就全球失衡而言，中国从来不是真正的罪魁祸首。美国经常账户赤字的最大对应物是石油出口经济体的总盈余，这些国家从高油价中获得了可观的收益（见左图）。国际货币基金组织预计，今年他们的盈余将达到创纪录的7400亿美元，其中五分之三将来自中东。这将使中国的预期盈余1800亿美元相形见war。自2000年以来，石油出口国的累计顺差已超过4万亿美元，是中国的两倍。与中国相比，这种巨大的存量受到较少关注的一个原因是，只有很少一部分进入了官方储备。其中大部分来自不透明的政府投资基金。中东经常通过伦敦的中介机构购买国库券，隐藏了他们的真正所有权。许多资金投资于股票，对冲基金，私募股权和财产，而所有权很难追踪。事实证明，石油出口国的盈余比以前的石油价格震荡后积累的盈余要持久得多。部分原因是石油供应紧张使价格居高不下，部分原因是石油出口商在进口上花费的意外之财比以前的繁荣时期少。

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    《The economist》 |2012年第8782期|p.70|共1页
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