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Miracle or Malthus?

机译：奇迹还是马尔萨斯？

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The Marie Stopes clinic on the outskirts of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, recently performed the country's first vasectomy. It stirred a public outcry. One man said Daoude Zia, a 41-year-old teacher with four children, had let himself be "castrated". "We must sleep with women without using contraceptives," wrote another, "and women should throw away family planning because children are a gift of God and we must create more and more." African demography is unique. It is the only continent that will double in size, reaching 2 billion people by 2045 at current rates. Some countries, such as Liberia and Niger, are growing faster still, doubling in size in less than 20 years-a stunning increase that is causing forecasts of Malthu-sian disaster for countries that cannot feed themselves. With 12% of the world's popu- lation, sub-Saharan Africa has 57% of the deaths of mothers in childbirth, 49% of its infant mortality and 67% of hi v infections. Yet Africa is also showing signs of embarking on the same transition towards smaller families that has occurred everywhere else. In north Africa families of two are the norm. Even if you exclude that region, the sub-Saharan part includes areas of relatively low fertility such as southern Africa, where families of three prevail. Big cities, such as Zambia's Lusaka and Congo's Kinshasa, have fertility rates below four; the rate in Ethiopia's Addis Ababa is probably just two. Evidence of lower fertility is raising hopes that Africa can reap a "demographic dividend", the economic benefit countries get when the share of the working-age population rises relative to children and old people.
机译：位于布基纳法索首都瓦加杜古郊区的玛丽·斯托斯诊所最近进行了该国的首次输精管结扎术。它引起了公众的强烈抗议。一名男子说，达乌德·齐亚（Daoude Zia）是一位41岁的老师，有四个孩子，他曾被“ cast割”。另一位写道：“我们必须与妇女同床而不用避孕药，妇女应该放弃计划生育，因为孩子是上帝的恩赐，我们必须创造更多。”非洲人口统计学是独特的。它是唯一一个规模扩大一倍的大陆，到2045年以目前的速度达到20亿人口。一些国家，例如利比里亚和尼日尔，仍在以更快的速度增长，在不到20年的时间里规模翻了一番，这一惊人的增长使人们对无法自给自足的国家造成马尔萨斯族灾难的预测。撒哈拉以南非洲地区占世界人口的12％，其中分娩时母亲死亡的比例为57％，婴儿死亡率为49％，艾滋病毒感染率为67％。然而，非洲也显示出在其他地方也开始向较小家庭过渡的迹象。在北非，两口之家很普遍。即使您排除该地区，撒哈拉以南地区也包括生育率较低的地区，例如南部非洲，其中以三人家庭为准。赞比亚的卢萨卡和刚果的金沙萨等大城市的生育率低于4。埃塞俄比亚的亚的斯亚贝巴的比率可能只有两个。较低的生育率的证据使人们希望非洲能够获得“人口红利”，这是当工作年龄人口的比例相对于儿童和老年人增加时，各国所获得的经济利益。

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    《The economist》 |2011年第8764期|p.76-77|共2页
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