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An Uncertain Future

机译：不确定的未来

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Not so long ago, prediction markets were being tipped as a fantastic new way to forecast everything from the completion date of a vital project to a firm's annual sales. But although they have spread beyond early-adopting companies in the technology industry, they have still not become mainstream management tools. Even fervent advocates admit much remains to be done to convince sceptical managers of their value. "It's still a pretty evangelical business," says Leslie Fine of CrowdCast, one of the firms that provide trading platforms for companies keen to pool the collective wisdom of their employees.rnPrediction markets work by giving people virtual trading accounts that allow them to buy and sell "shares" that correspond to a particular outcome. Shares in an outcome that is considered more likely to occur then trade at a higher price than those that represent a less likely outcome. This provides a way to tap into the tacit knowledge that exists in companies, especially ones that have many different divisions or offices.rnKoch Industries, an American conglomerate in a range of businesses including chemicals, fertilisers and commodity trading, has been running prediction markets for the past nine months involving about 200 of its staff from different areas. The group, which has revenues of some $100 billion, has launched contracts on, among other things, the future prices of raw materials used in its chemicals division and the likelihood of bank nationalisations. Koch says the results so far have been pretty accurate compared to actual outcomes, but stresses that markets are complementary to other forecasting techniques, not a substitute for them.
机译：不久之前，预测市场已被称为一种神奇的新方法，可以预测从重要项目的完成日期到公司的年销售额的所有内容。但是，尽管它们已经超越了技术行业中采用率较高的公司，但它们仍未成为主流管理工具。即使是狂热的拥护者也承认，要说服怀疑的经理人了解他们的价值，还有许多工作要做。 CrowdCast的莱斯利·芬（Leslie Fine）说：“这仍然是一个传福音的业务。”该公司为热衷于凝聚员工集体智慧的公司提供交易平台。rn预测市场通过为人们提供虚拟交易账户让他们进行购买和交易而发挥作用。卖出与特定结果相对应的“股份”。被认为更有可能发生的结果中的股票然后以比代表不太可能的结果的股票更高的价格交易。这提供了一种利用公司中隐性知识的方法，特别是那些拥有许多不同部门或办事处的公司。rnKochIndustries是一家从事化学，肥料和商品贸易等一系列业务的美国企业集团，一直在为在过去的九个月中，来自不同领域的约200名员工参与其中。该集团的收入约为1000亿美元，它已就其化学品部门所用原材料的未来价格以及银行被国有化的可能性发起了合同。 Koch说，到目前为止的结果与实际结果相比非常准确，但是他强调市场是其他预测技术的补充，不能替代它们。

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    《The economist》 |2009年第8620期|72|共1页
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