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首页> 外文期刊>Operations Research >Intertemporal uncertainty avoidance: When the future is uncertain, people prefer the present, and when the present is uncertain, people prefer the future
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Intertemporal uncertainty avoidance: When the future is uncertain, people prefer the present, and when the present is uncertain, people prefer the future

机译：避免跨期不确定性：当未来不确定时，人们倾向于现在；而当不确定时，人们则倾向于未来

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摘要

When people need to decide between the present and the future, also termed the intertemporal choices, popular exponential and hyperbolic models attempt to distill a person's time preferences over multiple periods into a single discount rate. These models generally assume a positive discount rate, implying that people consistently prefer to have good things now and put off bad things until later. However, most formal models have treated risk and time separately, implicitly assuming that uncertainty does not change time preferences, and that the presence of delay does not influence risk preferences. However, experimental investigations have found that uncertainty does indeed influence time preferences for rewards. The article presents three experiments to explore the effect of explicit uncertainty on time preferences for both losses and gains. Participants were given standard intertemporal choice questions, such as a choice between paying $100 today or $110 next year. Then a comparison is made where the future is uncertain ($100 today versus 50% chance of $220 next year), cases where the present is uncertain (50% chance of $200 today vs. $110 next year, and cases where both the present and future are uncertain (50% chance of $200 today vs. 50% chance of $220 next year), holding the expected value constant. The results showed that when the future is uncertain, people prefer immediate gains and losses more strongly. When the present is uncertain, people prefer future gains and losses more strongly. When both the present and future are uncertain, time preferences for gains and losses are relatively unaffected. Hence, it is concluded that people's intertemporal choices imply that uncertain gains receive less weight, but uncertain losses receive more weight. (34 refs.)
机译：当人们需要在当前和未来之间做出决定时（也称为跨时间选择），流行的指数模型和双曲线模型试图将一个人在多个时期的时间偏好提炼成一个折现率。这些模型通常假设折现率为正，这意味着人们始终喜欢现在拥有好东西，而推迟到以后再去买坏东西。但是，大多数正式模型都将风险和时间分开对待，隐含地假设不确定性不会改变时间偏好，并且延迟的存在不会影响风险偏好。但是，实验研究发现，不确定性确实会影响奖励的时间偏好。本文提出了三个实验，以探索明确的不确定性对时间偏好的损失和收益的影响。为参与者提供了标准的跨期选择问题，例如在今天支付100美元或明年支付110美元之间进行选择。然后比较未来不确定的情况（今天为100美元，明年为220美元的可能性为50％），当前不确定的情况（今天为200美元与明年为110美元的可能性为50％，以及现在和将来不确定性（今天有200％的可能性，有50％的可能性，明年则有220％的可能性，有50％的可能性），并且保持期望值不变。结果表明，当未来不确定时，人们更倾向于立即获利和损失。 ，人们更倾向于未来的收益和损失，当当前和未来都不确定时，收益和损失的时间偏好相对不受影响，因此得出结论，人们的跨期选择意味着不确定的收益获得的权重较小，但是不确定的收益得到的权重重量更大（34个参考）

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  • 来源
    《Operations Research》 |2018年第4期|365-368|共4页
  • 作者

    David J. Hardisty; Jeffrey Pfeffer;

  • 作者单位

    Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T1Z2, Canada;

    Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;

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