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The audacity of hope

机译:希望的大胆

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Iloyd blankfein may travel by train rather than private jet these days, but the firm he heads has moved back into the fast lane. On April 13th Goldman Sachs kicked off the banks' earnings season in impressive fashion: the $1.8 billion of net profit it posted for the first quarter smashed analysts' forecasts, leaving them wondering, if only for a moment, whether they were back in 2006. At the same time, Goldman cheekily raised more than $5 billion of common equity to help pay back the $10 billion of taxpayer money it was arm-twisted into taking last October.rnGoldman is keen to distinguish itself from weaker banks, but optimists see its results as part of a pattern of recovery for the industry. JPMorgan Chase reported stron-ger-than-expected results on April 16th. Wells Fargo expects to post record quarterly profits, largely thanks to surging mortgage refinancing as interest rates have fallen. Optimism about banks' performance has given their shares a much-needed lift from their March lows (see chart). Hope is growing that, with markets thawing and the yield curve steeper, allowing banks to lend at higher rates than those at whichrnthey borrow, many will be able to earn their way out of trouble. The reality may be less cheering.
机译:如今,伊洛伊德·布兰克费恩(Iloyd Blankfein)可能乘坐火车而不是乘坐私人飞机旅行,但他领导的公司已重回快车道。 4月13日,高盛以令人印象深刻的方式拉开了银行的盈利季节:第一季度18亿美元的净利润打破了分析师的预期,使他们想知道,如果只是一会儿,他们是否会回到2006年。与此同时,高盛慷慨地筹集了超过50亿美元的普通股资金,以偿还去年10月份扭曲的100亿美元纳税人资金。高盛渴望将自己与实力较弱的银行区分开来,但乐观人士会看到其结果作为行业复苏模式的一部分。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)于4月16日公布了超出预期的结果。富国银行(Wells Fargo)预计将发布创纪录的季度利润,这主要是由于利率下降导致抵押贷款再融资激增。对银行业绩的乐观态度使他们的股票从3月的低点急需上升(见图表)。越来越多的希望是,随着市场解冻,收益率曲线更加陡峭,允许银行以比借贷银行更高的利率贷款,许多银行将能够摆脱困境。现实可能会少一些欢呼。

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    《The economist》 |2009年第8627期|79-80|共2页
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