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Bad Vibrations

机译:不良振动

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Bungee jumps may be exhilarating, but they can also be frightening. They end up with the participants much lower than when they started-and with their safety hanging by a thread.rnThat has been the experience of investors this year. There have been some phenomenal stockmarket rallies, like the one on October 28th that carried the Dow Jones Industrial Average almost 900 points higher. But there has been a much greater number of dismal dips.rnClearly, bad news about the global economy has played its part. Investors are worried that a widespread recession will prompt corporate bankruptcies (and thus bond defaults) and a sharp fall in profits (hitting equities). The prospect of an economic slowdown has also prompted them to call the end of the commodities bull market (see chart).rnBut the speed of market movements suggests another factor has been even more important. When investors are in trouble, they sell what they can, not what they would like to. It looks as if they have been dumping a whole range of assets.
机译:蹦极跳可能令人振奋,但也可能令人恐惧。他们最终的参与者要比刚开始时要低得多,而且他们的安全性也悬而未决。这是今年投资者的经验。股市出现了一些惊人的反弹,例如10月28日的那一次,使道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了近900点。但是,出现的惨淡跌幅要大得多。显然,有关全球经济的坏消息已经发挥了作用。投资者担心广泛的经济衰退会促使公司破产(进而导致债券违约),并导致利润急剧下降(打击股票)。经济放缓的前景也促使他们称大宗商品牛市即将终结(见图表)。但是,市场运动的速度表明,另一个因素更为重要。当投资者陷入困境时,他们会卖出他们能卖的,而不是他们想要的东西。看起来他们好像一直在倾销全部资产。

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    《The economist》 |2008年第8604期|85-8688|共3页
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