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That Sinking Feeling

机译:那下沉的感觉

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With luck rather than skill, Japan escaped the bubbles in housing, credit and commodities. As Western banks suffered, Japanese ones even went on a small acquisition spree. But the (fairly) good times are over. The unwinding of the yen carry trade, in which investors borrowed low-interest yen to place in higher-yielding assets abroad, has helped to send the yen soaring (see chart). Exotic foreign-currency products sold to retail investors reinforce the currency's upward trajectory.rnThe stronger currency threatens the profits of Japan's big exporters, contributing to a stockmarket rout, which in turn is winnowing Japanese banks' capital. To alleviate the woe, the Bank of Japan was expected to cut interest rates from 0.50% to 0.25% on October 31st. But the economy will still get walloped.
机译:日本靠运气而不是技巧,摆脱了住房,信贷和商品方面的泡沫。由于西方银行的苦难,日本银行甚至大举收购。但是(相当)美好的时光已经过去了。日元套利交易的放松,投资者借入低息日元将其放置在海外的高收益资产中,这助长了日元的飙升(见图)。出售给散户投资者的奇特的外币产品加强了该货币的升势。rn升值威胁了日本大型出口商的利润,导致股市大跌,这反过来又使日本银行的资本蒙上了阴影。为减轻这种麻烦,预计日本央行将于10月31日将利率从0.50%降至0.25%。但是经济仍然会陷入困境。

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    《The economist》 |2008年第8604期|90|共1页
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