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A Stochastic Hybrid Method to Forecast Operating Reserve: Comparison of Fuzzy and Classical Set Theory

机译：预测运营储备的随机混合方法：模糊集与经典集理论的比较

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摘要

Accurate operating reserve forecasting helps the system operator to make decisions contributing to the security of the power system. It also helps market participants to adopt proper strategic bidding for the day-ahead ancillary services market to enhance their financial profit. This article proposes a stochastic hybrid method to forecast the operating reserve requirement in day-ahead electricity markets. At the first stage, based on using a modified Gray model, the day-ahead operating reserve is forecasted. In order to improve the accuracy of the operating reserve forecasting, at the next stage, a Markov chain model is used to predict the forecasting error of the Cray model. These two models are linked to each other using two different approaches-classical and fuzzy. The proposed approach is verified by the historical data of the operating reserve for spring and autumn seasons in the Khorasan Electricity Network located in Khorasan Province, Iran.
机译：准确的运行储备预测可以帮助系统操作员做出有助于电力系统安全的决策。它还可以帮助市场参与者针对日间辅助服务市场采取适当的战略招标，以提高他们的财务利润。本文提出了一种随机混合方法来预测日前电力市场中的运营储备需求。在第一阶段，基于修改后的灰色模型，对超期运营准备金进行了预测。为了提高业务储备预测的准确性，在下一阶段，使用马尔可夫链模型预测Cray模型的预测误差。这两个模型使用经典和模糊两种不同的方法相互链接。位于伊朗霍拉桑省的霍拉桑电力网络中的春季和秋季季节运营储备的历史数据验证了所提出的方法。

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  • 来源
    《Electric Power Components and Systems》 |2013年第8期|806-823|共18页
  • 作者

    ARASH ASRARI; AMIN KARGARIAN; MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN JAVIDI; MOHAMMAD MONFARED; SAEED LOTFIFARD;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Room 263, Harris Corporation Engineering Center, University of Central Florida, 4000 Central Florida Blvd., Orlando, FL 32816;

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Mississippi State University, Starkville, Mississippi, USA;

    Department of Electrical Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Mashhad, Iran;

    Department of Electrical Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Mashhad, Iran;

    Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    operating reserve; Gray model; Markov chain model; fuzzy approach;

    机译：业务储备;灰色模型;马尔可夫链模型;模糊方法;

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