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Stochastic analysis of economic viability of photovoltaic panels installation for big consumers in Brazil

机译：巴西大消费者安装光伏电池板的经济可行性的随机分析

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In the last few years, the growth of solar power worldwide has been remarkable and, different from other sources, it allows small and big consumers to play an important role in the electric system. In Brazil, for big consumers, apart from the benefit associated with energy cost reduction, the photovoltaic system can also reduce the peak demand as well, making the investment even more attractive. Therefore, one of the main challenges for consumers is to accurately estimate the impact of photovoltaic systems on their costs. To do that, the estimation of their future energy consumption, peak demand and energy generation from photovoltaic systems is important to properly compute the economic advantages of such investments.This paper proposes to solve this problem by simulating future energy scenarios of energy consumption, generation and peak demand and correlating them to compute the optimum quantity of photovoltaic panels to be installed and the peak demand contract with the utility by solving a mixed integer linear stochastic optimization model. In the first part of this work, a Box & Jenkins modelling is used to estimate the parameters of the energy consumption, generation and peak demand in a correlated way. In the second part, a stochastic optimization model is applied using a convex combination of the Expected Value and Conditional Value-at-Risk, which were used as risk metrics to compute the optimum number of panels and the best peak demand contract. To illustrate the proposed approach, a case study of a real big consumer is presented, considering a specific contract applied in Brazil. The results allow us to analyze the investment in photovoltaic systems considering the risk level of the consumer and the correlation of all variables involved. In addition to that, the proposed paper can be used as a reference model to be applied in different modalities in Brazil and other countries.
机译：在过去的几年中，全球太阳能的增长令人瞩目，并且与其他来源不同，它使大小消费者都可以在电力系统中发挥重要作用。在巴西，对于大消费者而言，除了减少能源成本带来的好处外，光伏系统还可以减少高峰需求，从而使投资更具吸引力。因此，消费者面临的主要挑战之一是准确估算光伏系统对其成本的影响。为此，对光伏系统未来的能耗，峰值需求和发电量的估算对于正确计算此类投资的经济优势非常重要。通过求解混合整数线性随机优化模型，将峰值需求与相关联，以计算要安装的光伏面板的最佳数量，并与公用事业部门达成峰值需求收缩。在这项工作的第一部分中，使用Box＆Jenkins模型以相关的方式估算能耗，发电量和峰值需求的参数。在第二部分中，使用期望值和条件风险值的凸组合应用随机优化模型，这些模型被用作风险度量，以计算最佳面板数和最佳高峰需求合同。为了说明建议的方法，考虑到巴西适用的特定合同，对一个真正的大消费者进行了案例研究。结果使我们能够考虑到消费者的风险水平以及所涉及的所有变量之间的相关性来分析光伏系统的投资。除此之外，拟议论文可以用作参考模型，以在巴西和其他国家的不同模式中应用。

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