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Stochastic analysis of economic viability of photovoltaic panels installation for big consumers in Brazil

机译：巴西大消费者的光伏电池板经济可行性随机分析

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摘要

In the last few years, the growth of solar power worldwide has been remarkable and, different from other sources, it allows small and big consumers to play an important role in the electric system. In Brazil, for big consumers, apart from the benefit associated with energy cost reduction, the photovoltaic system can also reduce the peak demand as well, making the investment even more attractive. Therefore, one of the main challenges for consumers is to accurately estimate the impact of photovoltaic systems on their costs. To do that, the estimation of their future energy consumption, peak demand and energy generation from photovoltaic systems is important to properly compute the economic advantages of such investments.This paper proposes to solve this problem by simulating future energy scenarios of energy consumption, generation and peak demand and correlating them to compute the optimum quantity of photovoltaic panels to be installed and the peak demand contract with the utility by solving a mixed integer linear stochastic optimization model. In the first part of this work, a Box & Jenkins modelling is used to estimate the parameters of the energy consumption, generation and peak demand in a correlated way. In the second part, a stochastic optimization model is applied using a convex combination of the Expected Value and Conditional Value-at-Risk, which were used as risk metrics to compute the optimum number of panels and the best peak demand contract. To illustrate the proposed approach, a case study of a real big consumer is presented, considering a specific contract applied in Brazil. The results allow us to analyze the investment in photovoltaic systems considering the risk level of the consumer and the correlation of all variables involved. In addition to that, the proposed paper can be used as a reference model to be applied in different modalities in Brazil and other countries.
机译：在过去的几年里，世界范围内的太阳能增长是显着的，与其他来源不同，它允许小型和大消费者在电力系统中发挥重要作用。在巴西，对于大消费者而言，除了与能源成本减少相关的益处，光伏系统也可以降低峰值需求，使投资更具吸引力。因此，消费者的主要挑战之一是准确地估计光伏系统对其成本的影响。为此，估计其未来能源消耗，峰值需求和光伏系统的能量产生是对这种投资的经济优势妥善计算经济优势的重要性。本文提出通过模拟能源消耗的未来能源场景来解决这个问题。通过求解混合整数线性随机优化模型，峰值需求和将它们计算安装的最佳光伏面板和峰值需求与峰值需求合同。在这项工作的第一部分中，盒子和Jenkins建模用于以相关方式估计能量消耗，发电和峰值需求的参数。在第二部分中，使用预期值和条件值 - 风险的凸组合应用随机优化模型，这些模型被用作风险指标来计算最佳面板数量和最佳的峰值需求合同。为了说明拟议的方法，考虑到在巴西应用的具体合同，提出了对真正的大消费者的案例研究。结果允许我们分析考虑消费者风险水平的光伏系统的投资以及所涉及的所有变量的相关性。除此之外，拟议的纸张还可用作参考模型，以应用于巴西和其他国家的不同方式。

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