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Probabilistic evaluations on marginal price and capacity adequacy of power systems with price-elastic demand

机译：价格 - 弹性需求电力系统边际价格与能力充足性的概率评价

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摘要

An increasing deployment of smart grid technologies and demand response programs has enabled demands to be more elastic in response to electricity prices, actively contributing to power system operation. However, demand price elasticity could potentially impact accuracy of electricity price forecasting and generation capacity adequacy evaluation, which have not been thoroughly explored in literature. To this end, a probabilistic model is developed to evaluate marginal electricity price and capacity adequacy of power systems with elastic demand, while considering uncertainties of both demand and supply sides (e.g., random outages of generating units with multi-bidding-segments as well as variability of renewable energy outputs). Specifically, based on the concept of marginal bidding segment, the probability of a bidding segment being marginal is computed via the probabilistic production simulation approach. Accordingly, the discrete probability distribution of marginal electricity price can be obtained, which is further used to calculate mean and variance of marginal electricity price with elastic demand. Moreover, considering the interaction between elastic demands and uncertain electricity prices, the loss-of-load probability and the expected unserved energy are further estimated. Numerical studies are presented to validate effectiveness of the proposed method.
机译：智能电网技术和需求响应计划的增加部署使需求是在回应电力价格更有弹性，积极推动电力系统运行。然而，需求价格弹性可能会影响电价预测和发电容量充裕度评估，还没有在文献中深入探讨的准确性。为此，概率模型来评估边际电价，并具有弹性需求动力系统的容量充足，同时考虑需求和供给两方面（的不确定性，例如，生成多招投标段单位的随机停运以及可再生能源的输出可变性）。具体地，基于边缘投标段的概念，的投标段是边际概率经由随机生产模拟方法计算的。因此，可以得到边际电价的离散概率分布，其被进一步用于计算边际电价弹性需求的均值和方差。此外，考虑弹性需求和不确定的电力价格之间的互动，失负荷的概率和预期缺电进一步估算。数值研究提交给了该方法的有效性验证。

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  • 来源
    《Electric power systems research》 |2021年第5期|107045.1-107045.9|共9页
  • 作者

    Ma Jingjie; Zhang Shaohua; Wu Lei; Liu Yikui; Wang Xian; Li Xue; Wang Fei;

  • 作者单位

    Shanghai Univ Sch Mechatron Engn & Automat China 200444 Peoples R China;

    Shanghai Univ Sch Mechatron Engn & Automat China 200444 Peoples R China;

    Stevens Inst Technol Dept Elect & Comp Engn Hoboken NJ 07030 USA;

    Stevens Inst Technol Dept Elect & Comp Engn Hoboken NJ 07030 USA;

    Shanghai Univ Sch Mechatron Engn & Automat China 200444 Peoples R China;

    Shanghai Univ Sch Mechatron Engn & Automat China 200444 Peoples R China;

    Shanghai Univ Sch Mechatron Engn & Automat China 200444 Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Capacity adequacy; Demand-price elasticity; Marginal price; Probabilistic evaluation;

    机译：能力充足;需求 - 价格弹性;边缘价格;概率评价;

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