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Adoption of new online services in the presence of network externalities and complementarities

机译：在存在网络外部性和互补性的情况下采用新的在线服务

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摘要

A typical online user utilizes multiple services in the same service category concurrently due to the fact that many online service markets are characterized by the coexistence of multiple services offering complementary features. Along with an inherent network externality feature, this complementary nature among competing online services complicates predictions of adoption patterns in these markets. This paper extends the adoption function model of Arthur [W.B. Arthur, Competing technologies, increasing returns, and lock-in by historical events, The Economic Journal 99 (1989) 116-131] and applies it to the online service market in an attempt to explain various cases of adoption behavior. The proposed model predicts that there exists a first-mover's advantage in this market. Specifically, when network externality is large enough, the follower is confined to a low market share, even though it provides the same level of service as that provided by the leader. However, this first-mover's advantage can be overcome in cases where perturbations are caused by the heterogeneity of consumers or by service value uncertainty. In addition, a two-step punctuated equilibrium may exist: under specific conditions, market share distribution may be stable for a while at certain levels and then move into actual equilibrium.
机译：由于许多在线服务市场的特点是提供互补功能的多种服务并存，因此典型的在线用户会同时使用同一服务类别中的多种服务。除了固有的网络外部性功能外，竞争性在线服务之间的这种互补性还使得对这些市场中采用模式的预测变得复杂。本文扩展了Arthur [W.B. Arthur，《竞争技术，不断增长的回报和历史事件的锁定》，《经济杂志》 99（1989）116-131]，并将其应用于在线服务市场，以试图解释采用行为的各种情况。所提出的模型预测，在该市场中存在先发优势。具体而言，当网络外部性足够大时，即使追随者提供的服务水平与领导者所提供的服务水平相同，也将其局限于较低的市场份额。但是，如果消费者的异质性或服务价值的不确定性引起了干扰，则可以克服先行者的优势。此外，可能存在两步式的点刻均衡：在特定条件下，市场份额分布可能会在一定水平上稳定一段时间，然后进入实际均衡。

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