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Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Kernel Conditional Density Estimation

机译:基于核条件密度估计的短期负荷预测

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摘要

A short-term load forecasting model based on the kernel estimation of the conditional probability density distribution is proposed. The pattern vector of the load time series sequence can be treated as the multivariate random variable whose value determines the pattern component values of the next sequence, which is forecasted. Probability density functions are obtained from historical load time series by means of nonparametric density estimation. This approach uses the product kernel estimators. The kernel function smoothing parameters are determined using cross-validation procedure. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through applications to real load data.
机译:提出了一种基于条件概率密度分布核估计的短期负荷预测模型。加载时间序列序列的模式向量可以视为多元随机变量,其值确定了预测的下一个序列的模式分量值。概率密度函数是通过非参数密度估计从历史负载时间序列获得的。这种方法使用乘积核估计器。使用交叉验证过程确定内核函数平滑参数。通过对实际载荷数据的应用说明了所提出方法的适用性。

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