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Early-Warning Model of Financial Crisis: An Empirical Study Based on Listed Companies of Information Technology Industry in China

机译：金融危机预警模型：基于中国信息技术产业上市公司的实证研究

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摘要

Based on the two dimensions of financial and non-financial index, this paper constructs a financial crisis early-warning index system of Chinese information technology listing companies from eight aspects: profitability, debt-paying ability, operational capacity, cash flow management, development capacity, innovation ability, governance structure, and external evaluation. This paper takes the listed companies of information technology industry appearing in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange from 2003 to 2017 as samples for empirical research, and uses factor analysis and Logistic regression analysis to build the financial crisis early-warning model. The result shows that the predictive accuracy of this model is 87.5%, which is of guiding significance for the company to improve its financial management level.
机译：基于金融和非金融指数的两个维度，本文构建了中国信息技术的金融危机预警指标体系，从八个方面提出：盈利，债务能力，运营能力，现金流管理，发展能力，创新能力，治理结构和外部评估。本文以2003年至2017年从上海和深圳证券交易所出现的信息技术行业上市公司作为实证研究的样本，并利用因子分析和逻辑回归分析来构建金融危机预警模型。结果表明，该模型的预测准确性为87.5％，这对公司提高其财务管理水平是指导意义。

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