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Capital Flows During Quantitative Easing: Experiences of Developing Countries

机译:量化宽松期间的资本流动:发展中国家的经验

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A potentially important side effect of quantitative easing (QE) by the United States Federal Reserve was the expansion of capital flows into developing countries. As a result, there were widespread concerns that reversing QE might trigger financial instability in those countries. The central objective of our article is to empirically investigate this important issue by (1) examining the effect of QE on capital flows into developing Asia and (2) identifying the most significant factors that influence the effect of a QE taper tantrum on exchange rate instability. We find that capital flows into developing countries during QE were at least comparable to those before the global financial crisis. We also find that capital flows during QE and the symptoms of those capital flows such as high inflation, credit expansion, and the deterioration of the current-account balance accounted for much of the destabilizing effect of a QE taper tantrum. While there is no evidence that macroprudential policies directly reduce the destabilizing effect, they can nevertheless be useful preemptive measures.
机译:美联储量化宽松政策的一个潜在重要副作用是扩大了流入发展中国家的资本。结果,人们普遍担心,扭转量化宽松政策可能会引发这些国家的金融不稳定。本文的主要目的是通过以下方式对这一重要问题进行实证研究:(1)研究量化宽松对流入发展中亚洲的资本的影响;(2)确定影响量化宽松锥度对汇率不稳定影响的最重要因素。 。我们发现,量化宽松期间流入发展中国家的资本至少可以与全球金融危机之前的资本相比。我们还发现,量化宽松期间的资本流动以及诸如高通货膨胀,信贷扩张和经常账户余额恶化等资本流动的症状,是造成量化宽松锥度发脾气的大部分不稳定因素。尽管没有证据表明宏观审慎政策会直接减轻破坏稳定的影响,但它们仍可能是有用的先发制人措施。

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