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Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries

机译:量化宽松和危机后流入发展中国家的资金激增

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This paper examines gross financial inflows to developing countries between 2000 and 2013, with a focus on the potential effects of quantitative easing (QE) policies in the United States and other high-income countries. We find evidence for potential transmission of QE along observable liquidity, portfolio balancing, and confidence channels. Moreover, we find that QE had an additional latent effect over and above these observable channels, one that survives an array of robustness tests, retains its significance across different types of financial flows, and which cannot be attributed to changes in expectations or elasticity. Our baseline estimates place the lower bound of a QE effect at around 5 percent of gross inflows above trend, for the average developing economy, which is a magnitude comparable to a one standard deviation change along the traditional channels. We also find evidence of heterogeneity among different types of flows; portfolio (especially bond) flows tend to be more sensitive than FDI to our measured QE effects. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
机译:本文研究了2000年至2013年间流入发展中国家的总资金流入,重点是量化宽松政策(QE)在美国和其他高收入国家的潜在影响。我们发现有证据表明量化宽松可能沿着可观察到的流动性,投资组合平衡和信心渠道传递。此外,我们发现,量化宽松在这些可观察的渠道之上还具有额外的潜在影响,这种能力在一系列稳健性测试中幸存下来,在各种类型的资金流中都保持着重要的地位,并且不能归因于期望或弹性的变化。对于平均发展中经济体,我们的基准估计将量化宽松效应的下限定在趋势总流入量的5%左右,这一幅度可与传统渠道的标准差变化相媲美。我们还发现了不同类型流量之间异质性的证据。投资组合(尤其是债券)的流动对我们测得的量化宽松效应的影响往往比外国直接投资更为敏感。 (C)2016由Elsevier Ltd.出版

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