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The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective

机译：CEE视角下的经济周期内财政政策有效性

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摘要

In this article we analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policyfor a group of four Central and Eastern European countries. The recent literature shows that fiscal multipliers in the developed economies are higher during recession than expansion. So far, similar empirical analyses have been lacking for CEE countries. The results presented in this article show that fiscal multipliers in CEE countries differ with respect to the phase of the business cycle. Based on the SVAR methodology in which we allow for deterministic regime switching, we show that the government spending multipliers are significantly higher when the output gap is negative.
机译：在本文中，我们分析了中欧和东欧四个国家集团的财政政策的有效性。最近的文献表明，经济衰退期间发达经济体的财政乘数高于扩张。到目前为止，中东欧国家缺乏类似的经验分析。本文提供的结果表明，中东欧国家的财政乘数在商业周期阶段方面有所不同。基于我们允许确定性政权转换的SVAR方法论，我们表明，当产出缺口为负时，政府支出乘数显着更高。

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