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Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Empirical Evidence for a Causal Relationship from European Emerging Economies

机译:通货膨胀,产出增长及其不确定性:来自欧洲新兴经济体因果关系的经验证据

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摘要

In this paper, we analyze the causality among inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties in all European countries with emerging economies. For these countries, high uncertainty regarding economic growth during the current economic and financial crisis that started in 2008 caused their governments to increase their efforts to sustain growth, and to maintain a low level of inflation. Of the twelve possible hypotheses regarding the causal relationships among inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties, we consider five relationships for which we find strong theoretical arguments and empirical evidence in the literature. The empirical evidence strongly supports the Friedman-Ball hypothesis that inflation Granger-causes inflation uncertainty. For the other four tested hypotheses, fewer significant causal relationships are obtained.
机译:在本文中,我们分析了所有新兴经济体欧洲国家中通货膨胀,产出增长及其不确定性之间的因果关系。对于这些国家而言,自2008年开始的当前经济和金融危机期间,经济增长存在高度不确定性,这导致其政府加大了维持经济增长和维持低通胀水平的努力。关于通货膨胀,产出增长及其不确定性之间的因果关系的十二种可能假设中,我们考虑了五种关系,我们在文献中找到了强有力的理论论据和经验证据。经验证据强烈支持弗里德曼鲍尔假说,即通胀格兰杰导致通胀不确定性。对于其他四个检验的假设,获得的重要因果关系较少。

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