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The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Turkish Economy

机译：通货膨胀与通胀不确定性的关系：来自土耳其经济的证据

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In the present study, we examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Turkey from 2002 to 2011 using two-step procedure. At first step, ARMA-GARCH model of monthly inflation data is estimated and the conditional variance from these estimates is indicated as the monthly inflation uncertainty series. Then, the Granger causality tests between primarily inflation and generated inflation uncertainty series are performed. Empirical results of our study provided strong evidence in favor of the Friedman-Ball hypothesis that inflationary period result in high inflation uncertainty in Turkish case. These results present significant implications for the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainly in developing countries as much as monetary policy adopted Inflation Targeting in Turkey.
机译：在本研究中，我们使用两步程序研究了2002年至2011年土耳其通货膨胀与通胀不确定性的关系。乍一看，估计每月充气数据的ARMA-GARCH模型，并且这些估计的条件方差被称为月充气不确定性系列。然后，进行主要通货膨胀和产生的通胀不确定度系列之间的格兰杰因果关系测试。我们研究的经验结果提供了强有力的证据，有利于弗里克兰球假设，即通胀时期导致土耳其案件中的通胀不确定性。这些结果对发展中国家不确定的通货膨胀与通胀之间的关系产生了重大影响，因为货币政策采用了土耳其的通货膨胀。

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