• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Energy Conversion & Management >Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning
【24h】

Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

机译：容量规划的电力需求建模和预测

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This paper describes the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and electrical power consumption in Jordan. This is critical to production cost since power is generated by burning expensive imported oil. Currently, the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) is using regression models that only accounts for trend dynamics in their planning of loads and demand levels. The models are simplistic and are based on generated energy historical levels. They produce results on yearly bases and do not account for monthly variability in demand levels. The paper presents two models, one based on the generated energy data and the other is based on the consumed energy data. The models account for trend, monthly seasonality, and cycle dynamics. Both models are compared to NEPCO's model and indicate that NEPCO is producing energy at levels higher than needed (5.25%) thus increasing the loss in generated energy. The developed models also show a 13% difference between the generated energy and the consumed energy that is lost due to transmission line and in-house consumption.
机译：本文介绍了预测模型的发展，以预测约旦的未来发电量和电力消耗。这对生产成本至关重要，因为通过燃烧昂贵的进口油来发电。当前，国家电力公司（NEPCO）使用的回归模型仅考虑了负荷​​和需求水平规划中的趋势动态。这些模型是简单化的，并且基于生成的能源历史水平。他们以年度为基础得出结果，而不考虑需求水平的每月变化。本文提出了两种模型，一种基于生成的能量数据，另一种基于消耗的能量数据。这些模型说明了趋势，每月的季节性和周期动态。两种模型都与NEPCO的模型进行了比较，并表明NEPCO产生的能量高于所需水平（5.25％），从而增加了所产生能量的损失。所开发的模型还显示出，由于传输线和内部消耗，所产生的能量与所消耗的能量之间存在13％的差异。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号