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Are deterministic methods suitable for short term reserve planning?

机译：确定性方法是否适合短期储备计划？

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摘要

Although deterministic methods for establishing minutes reserve (such as the N-1 reserve or the percentage reserve) ignore the stochastic nature of reliability issues, they are commonly used in energy modelling as well as in practical applications. In order to check the validity of such methods, two test procedures are developed. The first checks if the N-1 reserve is a logical fixed value for minutes reserve. The second test procedure investigates whether deterministic methods can realise a stable reliability that is independent of demand. In both evaluations, the loss-of-load expectation is used as the objective stochastic criterion. The first test shows no particular reason to choose the largest unit as minutes reserve. The expected jump in reliability, resulting in low reliability for reserve margins lower than the largest unit and high reliability above, is not observed. The second test shows that both the N-l reserve and the percentage reserve methods do not provide a stable reliability level that is independent of power demand. For the N-l reserve, the reliability increases with decreasing maximum demand. For the percentage reserve, the reliability decreases with decreasing demand. The answer to the question raised in the title, therefore, has to be that the probability based methods are to be preferred over the deterministic methods.
机译：尽管用于建立分钟储备（例如N-1储备或百分比储备）的确定性方法忽略了可靠性问题的随机性，但它们通常用于能源建模以及实际应用中。为了检查这种方法的有效性，开发了两种测试程序。第一个检查N-1储备金是否为分钟储备金的逻辑固定值。第二个测试过程调查确定性方法是否可以实现独立于需求的稳定可靠性。在这两个评估中，将负载损失期望值用作客观随机准则。第一次测试表明没有特别的理由选择最大的单位作为分钟储备。没有观察到可靠性的预期跳跃，导致储备余量低于最大单元的可靠性低，高于储备单元的高可靠性。第二个测试表明，N-1保留方法和百分比保留方法都不能提供独立于功率需求的稳定可靠性级别。对于N-1储备，可靠性随着最大需求的减少而增加。对于百分比储备，可靠性随着需求的降低而降低。因此，标题中提出的问题的答案必须是基于概率的方法比确定性方法更可取。

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