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首页> 外文期刊>Energy economics >Value of technology in the U.S. electric power sector: Impacts of full portfolios and technological change on the costs of meeting decarbonization goals
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Value of technology in the U.S. electric power sector: Impacts of full portfolios and technological change on the costs of meeting decarbonization goals

机译：美国电力行业技术的价值：完整产品组合和技术变革对实现脱碳目标的成本的影响

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Power sector decarbonization is an important pillar of climate mitigation efforts, but perspectives differ about the relative competitiveness of generation technologies and how limited portfolio approaches (e.g., where non-renewable generation options are prohibited) could alter the costs and likelihoods of reaching emissions reduction goals. The existing literature on impacts of technological availability and cost on electric sector planning typically use models that do not have sufficient technological, spatial, and temporal detail to adequately resolve the economic competitiveness of variable renewable energy vis-a-vis dispatchable generators. Using a state-of-the-art energy-economic model, this work examines impacts of technological availability and advanced generation technologies on U.S. electricity market outcomes across a range of regional, market, and policy contexts. We show that decarbonization costs are 11%-76% higher as technological options are removed from consideration (incremental compliance costs for a 95% CO2 reduction below 2005 levels are roughly twice as high when new nuclear, carbon-capture-equipped units, and transmission are not allowed). However, the economic and technical implications of limited portfolios depend on the market and policy contexts (e.g., costs are higher with stringent targets, more extensive end-use electrification, and lower gas prices) and the costs and capabilities of the remaining options. The analysis demonstrates how lower temporal and spatial resolution models likely understate the value of technology by omitting key economic and technical features of high variable renewable pathways. Additionally, the analysis quantifies how technological change can lower costs of emissions reductions by 7%-73% and how low-cost battery storage can provide a hedge against higher costs when technological portfolios are limited. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：电力部门的脱碳是减缓气候变化努力的重要支柱，但是对于发电技术的相对竞争力以及有限的投资组合方法（例如，在禁止使用不可再生发电选项的情况下）如何改变实现减排目标的成本和可能性的观点存在分歧。有关技术可用性和成本对电力部门规划的影响的现有文献通常使用的模型没有足够的技术，空间和时间细节来充分解决可变可再生能源与可调度发电机之间的经济竞争力。这项工作使用最新的能源经济模型，研究了技术可用性和先进发电技术在一系列区域，市场和政策环境下对美国电力市场成果的影响。我们显示，由于不考虑技术选择，脱碳成本将增加11％-76％（在新建核电站，配备碳捕获装置的装置和输电装置后，低于2005年水平将95％的二氧化碳减排的合规成本大约是其两倍）不允许）。但是，有限的投资组合对经济和技术的影响取决于市场和政策环境（例如，目标严格的成本更高，最终用途电气化更广泛，天然气价格更低）以及其余选择的成本和能力。分析表明，较低的时间和空间分辨率模型如何通过忽略高可变可再生途径的关键经济和技术特征而低估了技术的价值。此外，该分析还量化了技术变革如何能够将减排成本降低7％-73％，以及在技术组合有限的情况下低成本的电池存储可以如何抵御较高的成本。 （C）2020 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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