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The insurance effect of renewable distributed energy resources against uncertain electricity price developments

机译：可再生分布能源对不确定电力价格发展的保险效应

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To combat dimate change, many countries all around the world currently foster the development of renewable energy sources (RES). However, in contrast to traditional energy systems that relied on few central power plants, RES are typically highly decentral and spread all over a country. Against this backdrop, the promotion of a decentralization of the energy system by fostering a regional balance of energy demand and supply with a corresponding increase in energy democracy is seen as a promising approach. However, energy democracy driven by an increasing involvement of consumers requires adequate investments of consumers in their own local RES in order to become active players, usually called prosumers. Risk associated with uncertain long-term electricity price developments is generally seen as a barrier to investments. In contrast, we describe that an investment in distributed energy resources (DERs) may actually serve as a consumers insurance against price risk. Our results set out that the consideration of risk-aversion may actually positively shift an investment decision in renewable DERs. This is due to the prosumer becoming more sell-sufficient and less dependent on uncertain price developments. To analyze such an insurance effect, we create a formal decision model considering the prosumers risk-aversion and derive the prosumer's optimal investment in renewable DERs. However, our results also indicate that under some circumstances the insurance effect disappears: When a prosumer turns into a predominant producer, the prosumer is again exposed to risk in terms of uncertain revenues. Ultimately, our work highlights the importance of a consideration of the insurance effect when assessing an investment in renewable DERs. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
机译：为了解决气候变化，世界各国各地目前促进可再生能源（RES）的发展。然而，与依赖于少数中心发电厂的传统能源系统形成鲜明对比，RES通常是高度的偏移并遍布一个国家。在这一背景下，通过培养能源需求和供应的区域平衡，促进能源系统的权力下放，以相应的能源民主的增加被视为一种有希望的方法。然而，由于消费者越来越多的消费者累计推动的能源民主需要在当地的当地遗址中充分投资消费者，以成为积极的参与者，通常被称为“专业人士”。与不确定的长期电价发展相关的风险通常被视为投资的障碍。相比之下，我们描述了对分布式能源资源（DERS）的投资实际上可以作为消费者保险免于价格风险。我们的结果阐述了风险厌恶的思考可能实际上会对可再生DERS提供积极转变投资决策。这是由于制度变得更加销售 - 足够和依赖于不确定的价格发展。为了分析这种保险效果，我们创建了一个正式的决策模型，考虑到制度风险厌恶，从而导出了检测对可再生DERS的最佳投资。但是，我们的结果也表明，在某些情况下，保险效果消失：当一个制度转变为主要的生产者时，制度在不确定的收入方面再次暴露于风险。最终，我们的工作突出了在评估对可再生DERS投资时审议保险效果的重要性。 （c）2020作者。由elsevier b.v出版。

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