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Risk management of energy system for identifying optimal power mix with financial-cost minimization and environmental-impact mitigation under uncertainty

机译：能源系统的风险管理，用于在不确定情况下以最小化财务成本和减轻环境影响的方式确定最佳的电力组合

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摘要

An interval-stochastic risk management (ISRM) method is launched to control the variability of the recourse cost as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The ISRM method can examine various policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties under uncertainties presented as probability distributions and interval values. An ISRM model is then formulated to identify the optimal power mix for the Beijing's energy system. Tradeoffs between risk and cost are evaluated, indicating any change in targeted cost and risk level would yield different expected costs. Results reveal that the inherent uncertainty of system components and risk attitude of decision makers have significant effects on the city's energy-supply and electricity-generation schemes as well as system cost and probabilistic penalty. Results also disclose that import electricity as a recourse action to compensate the local shortage would be enforced. The import electricity would increase with a reduced risk level; under every risk level, more electricity would be imported with an increased demand. The findings can facilitate the local authority in identifying desired strategies for the city's energy planning and management in association with financial-cost minimization and environmental-impact mitigation. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：推出了一种间隔随机风险管理（ISRM）方法，以控制追索成本的可变性并捕获随机规划中的风险概念。 ISRM方法可以检查与不确定性相关的各种政策方案，这些不确定性以概率分布和区间值表示。然后制定ISRM模型，以识别北京能源系统的最佳功率组合。评估了风险与成本之间的折衷，表明目标成本和风险水平的任何变化都会产生不同的预期成本。结果表明，系统组成部分的内在不确定性和决策者的风险态度对城市的能源供应和发电计划以及系统成本和概率损失都有重大影响。结果还显示，将执行进口电力作为补偿当地短缺的追索行动。进口电力将以降低的风险水平增加；在每种风险水平下，随着需求的增加，将进口更多电力。这些发现可以帮助地方政府结合财务成本的最小化和环境影响的缓解，为城市的能源规划和管理确定理想的战略。 （C）2016 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Energy economics》 |2017年第1期|313-329|共17页
  • 作者

    Nie S.; Li Y. P.; Liu J.; Huang Charley Z.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Toronto, Fac Appl Sci & Engn, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada;

    Beijing Normal Univ, Beijing Engn Res Ctr Watershed Environm Restorat, Sch Environm, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China|Univ Regina, Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada;

    Univ Regina, Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada;

    Univ British Columbia, Dept Civil Engn, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Decision making; Energy planning; Financing; Power mix; Risk management; Stochastic programming;

    机译：决策;能源计划;融资;电力混合;风险管理;随机规划;

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