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Exploring the future role of Asia utilizing a Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-economic Pathways

机译：利用情景矩阵架构和共享的社会经济途径探索亚洲的未来角色

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摘要

We explore the implications that alternative pathways for human population and economic development have for the role of Asia in reference no-climate-policy scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different pathways of socioeconomic development, which we refer to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the world's future with nearly half of the world's people and more than half of the world's economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asia and the world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high popuiation SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved.
机译：我们探讨了人口和经济发展的替代途径对亚洲在无气候政策情景和气候强迫受限情景中的作用的影响。我们考虑了三种不同的社会经济发展途径，我们将其称为“共享社会经济途径”（SSP）和四种不同程度的气候强迫限制，即“共享气候政策假设”（SPA）。 SSP根据人口和经济增长假设进行区分，而SPA根据辐射强迫水平进行区分。2100年，无论我们考虑哪种情况，亚洲在塑造世界未来的过程中都扮演着核心角色，近一半的人和更多的人超过世界经济活动和能源消耗的一半。在SSP和SPA的各种组合中，亚洲和世界的未来截然不同。人口众多的世界对亚洲资源和生态系统造成了巨大压力。在人口众多的南太平洋国家中，最贫困的人口面临着高昂的能源和粮食价格，减排水平越严格，贫困人口承受的压力就越大，尽管减排程度越严格，非受控生态系统的面积就越大。保留。

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  • 来源
    《Energy economics》 |2012年第3期|S325-S338|共14页
  • 作者

    Jiyong Eom; Kate Calvin; Leon Clarke; Jae Edmonds; Sonny Kim; Robert Kopp; Page Kyle; Patrick Luckow; Richard Moss; Pralit Patel; Marshall Wise;

  • 作者单位

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, United States;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, United States;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, United States;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, United States;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, United States;

    Rutgers University, United States;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, United States;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, United States;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, United States;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, United States;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    shared socio-economic pathway; socioeconomic development; mitigative and adaptive challenges; emissions mitigation; energy system; land use change;

    机译：共同的社会经济途径;社会经济发展;缓解和适应性挑战;减排;能源系统土地利用变化;

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