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Considering future regional air quality impacts of the transportation sector

机译：考虑交通部门对未来区域空气质量的影响

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摘要

Regional air pollution is strongly impacted by transportation emissions. Policy mechanisms to reduce emissions are required to reach environmental quality goals. Projecting the drivers (e.g., technical, economic, societal, regulatory) that will impact future emissions is challenging, and assessing regional air quality (AQ) is complicated by the need for detailed modeling tools and data inputs to simulate chemistry and transport of pollutants. This work assesses the contribution of emissions from transportation sources to ground-level concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter via two methods. First, impacts are quantified for three U.S. regions including California using output from an economic optimization model to grow a base year emissions inventory to 2055. Second, impacts are considered for California using state-level projections with an updated emissions inventory and modeling suite in 2035. For both, advanced AQ models are used, showing that the impacts of light duty vehicles are moderate, reflecting shifts to more efficient and lower emitting technologies. In contrast, heavy duty vehicles, ships, and off-road equipment are associated with important ozone and PM2.5 burdens. Emissions from petroleum fuel production and distribution activities also have notable impacts on ozone and PM2.5. These transportation sub-sectors should be the focus of future emissions reduction policies.
机译：运输排放会严重影响区域空气污染。需要减少排放的政策机制以实现环境质量目标。预测将影响未来排放的驱动因素（例如技术，经济，社会，法规）具有挑战性，并且由于需要详细的建模工具和数据输入来模拟污染物的化学和传输，评估区域空气质量（AQ）变得很复杂。这项工作通过两种方法评估了运输来源的排放对地面臭氧和细颗粒物浓度的贡献。首先，使用经济优化模型的输出将基准年排放清单增加到2055年，对包括加利福尼亚在内的美国三个地区的影响进行量化。其次，使用州级预测并在2035年使用更新的排放清单和模型套件来考虑对加利福尼亚的影响。两者均使用了先进的AQ模型，表明轻型车辆的影响适中，反映出已转向更高效，排放更低的技术。相反，重型车辆，轮船和越野设备与重要的臭氧和PM2.5负担相关。石油燃料生产和分配活动的排放也对臭氧和PM2.5产生了显着影响。这些运输子行业应成为未来减排政策的重点。

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