Assessment of import risks for natural gas and its implication for optimal importing strategies: A case study of China

Kong Zhaoyang; Lu Xi; Jiang Qingzhe; Dong Xiucheng; Liu Guixian; Elbot Noah; Zhang Zhonghua; Chen Shi

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Assessment of import risks for natural gas and its implication for optimal importing strategies: A case study of China

机译：天然气进口风险评估及其对最佳进口策略的启示：以中国为例

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China's growing dependence on foreign natural gas has garnered increased attention to import risks and exposure. The purpose of this study is to serve as a vital guide in formulating an energy policy framework that aims at assessing and mitigating the impacts of natural gas import risks (NGIR). First, the paper constructs a NGIR evaluation framework with full consideration of resource risk, political risk, transport risk, price volatility risk, purchasing power risk and dependence risk. The relative weight of various risk factors is also identified for importing gas from different sources. Building on this, we use a linear programming model to optimize China's gas import sources based on the minimization of import risks. The results show that China's NGIR exhibited increasing trends in 2010-2014, with variation in the largest risk factors by national gas supplier. For Turkmenistan and Indonesia, the greatest risk is dependence; for Qatar, price volatility risk; for Yemen, Australia and Uzbekistan, resource risk; and for Malaysia, purchasing power risk. Along with other policy recommendations, our optimization results indicate that increasing the proportion of Chinese gas imports from potential suppliers, such as Russia and the United States, is an effective approach to reduce NGIR.

机译：中国对外国天然气的日益依赖已经引起人们对进口风险和暴露的越来越多的关注。这项研究的目的是为制定旨在评估和减轻天然气进口风险（NGIR）影响的能源政策框架提供重要指导。首先，本文构建了一个NGIR评估框架，其中充分考虑了资源风险，政治风险，运输风险，价格波动风险，购买力风险和依赖风险。还确定了从不同来源进口天然气的各种风险因素的相对权重。在此基础上，我们使用线性规划模型在最小化进口风险的基础上优化中国的天然气进口来源。结果显示，中国的NGIR在2010-2014年间呈上升趋势，而最大的危险因素因国家天然气供应商而异。对于土库曼斯坦和印度尼西亚，最大的风险是依赖。对于卡塔尔而言，价格存在波动风险；对也门，澳大利亚和乌兹别克斯坦而言，资源风险；而对于马来西亚，购买力风险。与其他政策建议一起，我们的优化结果表明，增加从潜在供应商（例如俄罗斯和美国）进口的中国天然气的比例是减少NGIR的有效方法。

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来源
《Energy Policy》 |2019年第4期|11-18|共8页
作者
Kong Zhaoyang; Lu Xi; Jiang Qingzhe; Dong Xiucheng; Liu Guixian; Elbot Noah; Zhang Zhonghua; Chen Shi;
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作者单位

Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China|State Environm Protect Key Lab Sources & Control, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Int Trade & Econ, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China;

Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Int Trade & Econ, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China;

China Univ Petr, Sch Business Adm, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China;

Tsinghua Univ, Schwarzman Coll, Beijing 10084, Peoples R China;

Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Natural gas; Import risks; Diversification theory; Optimization; China;

机译：天然气;进口风险;多元化理论;优化;中国;

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Assessment of import risks for natural gas and its implication for optimal importing strategies: A case study of China

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