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Quantifying the social costs of nuclear energy: Perceived risk of accident at nuclear power plants

机译：量化核能的社会成本：核电站事故的感知风险

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摘要

The preferences expressed in voting on nuclear reactor licenses and the risk perceptions of citizens provide insights into social costs of nuclear power and decision making in energy policy. We show analytically that these costs consist of disutility caused by unnecessary anxiety - due to misperceived risks relating to existing reactors and where licenses for new nuclear reactors are not granted, delayed or totally lost energy production. Empirical evidence is derived from Finnish surveys eliciting explicitly the importance of risk perceptions on preferences regarding nuclear power and its environmental and economic impacts. We show that the estimated marginal impact of a high perceived risk of nuclear accident is statistically significant and that such a perception considerably decreases the probability of a person supporting nuclear power. This result holds across a number of robustness checks including an instrumental variable estimation and a model validation by observed voting behavior of the members of Parliament. The public's risk perceptions translate into a significant social cost, and are likely to affect the revenues, costs and financing conditions in the nuclear power sector in the future.
机译：对核反应堆执照进行投票时所表达的偏好以及对公民的风险认知，为人们洞悉核电的社会成本和能源政策决策提供了见识。我们从分析上显示，这些成本包括因不必要的焦虑而导致的无用功-由于与现有反应堆有关的误解风险以及未授予，延迟或完全失去能源生产的新核反应堆许可证。经验证据来自芬兰的调查，明确地得出了关于核电及其环境和经济影响的偏好的风险认识的重要性。我们表明，高感知的核事故风险的估计边际影响在统计上是显着的，并且这种感知大大降低了人们支持核电的可能性。该结果适用于许多稳健性检查，包括通过观察议员的投票行为进行的工具变量估计和模型验证。公众的风险感知会转化为巨大的社会成本，并有可能在未来影响核电行业的收入，成本和融资状况。

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