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China's 2020 clean energy target: Consistency, pathways and policy implications

机译：中国2020年清洁能源目标：一致性，途径和政策含义

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摘要

China has proposed its 2020 clean energy target together with the climate change target of reducing CO_2 intensity of the economy by 40-45% below the 2005 level. This article investigates the feasibility of these targets by testing their consistency under possible economic development scenarios. We analyse these targets from two perspectives: consistency with the overall economic growth and consistency with the international society's expectation on China's greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement responsibilities. The main findings are: under the recently announced 2020 target of gross domestic product (GDP) that is double the 2010 level, the adoption of a 15% clean energy target could result in excessive primary energy demand; and then with 40-45% GDP CO_2 intensity reduction, CO_2 emissions in 2020 could substantially exceed the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 ppm scenario for China. Thus we propose a 17% clean energy target that can reconcile the domestic plan with international expectation. Our article also outlines the pathways to realise clean energy development into 2020 and proposes policy recommendations.
机译：中国提出了2020年清洁能源目标以及气候变化目标，即将经济中的CO_2强度降低到比2005年水平低40-45％。本文通过测试这些目标在可能的经济发展情景下的一致性来研究其可行性。我们从两个角度分析这些目标：与整体经济增长的一致性以及与国际社会对中国减少温室气体（GHG）减排责任的期望的一致性。主要发现是：根据最近宣布的2020年国内生产总值（GDP）目标是2010年水平的两倍，采用15％的清洁能源目标可能会导致一次能源需求过多；然后将GDP的CO_2强度降低40-45％，到2020年，CO_2的排放量将大大超过国际能源署（IEA）在中国的450 ppm情景。因此，我们提出了17％的清洁能源目标，该目标可以使国内计划与国际期望保持一致。本文还概述了到2020年实现清洁能源发展的途径，并提出了政策建议。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2014年第2期|692-700|共9页
  • 作者

    Jiahai Yuan; Yan Xu; Xingping Zhang; Zheng Hu; Ming Xu;

  • 作者单位

    School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China;

    School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China;

    School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China;

    Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA;

    School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Clean energy development; CO_2 emissions; China;

    机译：清洁能源发展;二氧化碳排放量;中国;

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