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Quantifying China's oil import risks and the impact on the national economy

机译：量化中国的石油进口风险及其对国民经济的影响

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摘要

With an increase in China's oil imports, China's oil supply will also continue to be effected by the socio-economic stability of oil-exporting countries and the safety of oil transport routes. This paper introduces a systematic and quantitative method to evaluate the influence of China's oil import risks (OIR) on the national economy and industrial sectors from a perspective of apply chain process. For this analysis, China's OIR is quantified by integrating oil exporting country risk and the risks from oil transportation routes. Country risk is defined as the oil-exporting country's political risk caused by political changes or internal conflicts. Transport risk is defined as the risk of shipping routes affected by pirate attacks and geopolitics. Second, the relationship between China's OIR and oil import costs is analyzed using a multiple linear approach. Third, an input-output analysis method is used to research the effect of the cost of China's oil imports on the cost of investment within China's domestic sectors. This research finds that the corresponding impact on GDP is 3494.5 million dollars given an increasing by 10% of China's OIR. And the impact on domestic sectors differs from sector to sector. Finally, this paper puts forth recommendations to improve long-term oil supply security in China.
机译：随着中国石油进口的增加，中国的石油供应也将继续受到石油出口国社会经济稳定和石油运输路线安全的影响。本文从应用链过程的角度，介绍了一种系统和定量的方法来评估中国石油进口风险（OIR）对国民经济和工业部门的影响。在此分析中，通过综合石油出口国的风险和石油运输路线的风险来量化中国的OIR。国家风险定义为石油输出国由于政治变化或内部冲突而引起的政治风险。运输风险定义为受海盗袭击和地缘政治影响的运输路线风险。其次，使用多重线性方法分析了中国OIR与石油进口成本之间的关系。第三，使用投入产出分析方法研究中国石油进口成本对中国国内部门投资成本的影响。该研究发现，如果中国的OIR增长10％，对GDP的相应影响为3.445亿美元。而且对国内部门的影响因部门而异。最后，本文提出了改善中国长期石油供应安全的建议。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2014年第4期|605-611|共7页
  • 作者

    Mei Sun; Cuixia Gao; Bo Shen;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Energy Development and Environmental Protection, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, PR China;

    Center for Energy Development and Environmental Protection, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, PR China;

    China Energy Group, Energy Analysis and Environmental Impact Assessment Department, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, One Cyclotron Road, MS 90R4000, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Oil import risks; Cost; Input-output analysis;

    机译：石油进口风险;成本;投入产出分析;

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