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The influence of energy consumption of China on its real GDP from aggregated and disaggregated viewpoints

机译：从总体和分解的角度看中国的能源消耗对实际GDP的影响

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摘要

This paper investigated the causal relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels during the period of 1978-2009 by using a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) within a multivariate framework. The empirical results suggested the existence of a negative bi-directional Granger causality running from aggregated energy consumption to real GDP. At disaggregated level of energy consumption, the results were complicated. For coal, empirical findings suggested that there was a negative bi-directional Granger causality running from coal consumption to real GDP. However, for oil and gas, empirical findings suggested a positive bidirectional Granger causality running from oil as well as gas consumption to real GDP. Though these results supported the feedback hypothesis, the negative relationship might be attributed to the growing economy production shifting towards less energy intensive sectors and excessive energy consumption in relatively unproductive sectors. The results indicated that policies with reducing aggregated energy consumption and promoting energy conservation may boost China's economic growth.
机译：本文使用Toda和Yamamoto提出的Granger（1969）因果关系检验的改进版本，研究了1978-2009年期间中国能源消耗与国内生产总值（GDP）在总体和分类水平之间的因果关系。 （1995年）。实证结果表明，存在一个负的双向Granger因果关系，该因果关系是从总能耗到实际GDP的。在能源消耗的分类水平上，结果很复杂。对于煤炭，经验发现表明，从煤炭消费到实际GDP都存在负的双向格兰杰因果关系。但是，对于石油和天然气，经验发现表明，从石油，天然气消耗到实际GDP的双向格兰杰因果关系都是正的。尽管这些结果支持了反馈假说，但这种负相关关系可能归因于经济生产的增长向能源密集度较低的部门转移以及相对非生产性部门的过度能源消耗。结果表明，减少总能耗和促进节能的政策可能会促进中国的经济增长。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2013年第6期|76-81|共6页
  • 作者

    Wei Zhang; Shuyun Yang;

  • 作者单位

    School of Economics, University of Jinan, Jinan 250022, PR China;

    School of Electrical Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, PR China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    energy consumption; real GDP; modified WALD test;

    机译：能源消耗;实际GDP;改良的WALD测试;

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