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首页> 外文期刊>World review of science, technology and sustainable development >Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia: aggregated and disaggregated analysis
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Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia: aggregated and disaggregated analysis

机译：突尼斯能源消费与GDP的因果关系：聚合和分类分析

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摘要

This study investigates the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia for the 1980 to 2009 period at both aggregated and disaggregated levels as oil, natural gas, and electricity. To determine the Granger causality in the presence of cointegration between variables, a vector error correction model (VECM) is used instead of an autoregressive model (VAR). In the short-run, the neutrality hypothesis is supported between total energy consumption and GDP. This is also true between GDP and oil consumption in one hand and the gas consumption in other hand. Whereas a unidirectional is detected from electricity to the GDP is found (growth hypothesis). In the long-run, total energy consumption, in aggregate and disaggregated forms (gas and electricity) causes GDP (growth hypothesis). For against GDP causes oil consumption (conservation hypothesis). Consequently, the policy makers in Tunisia should place priority an increased commitment to aggregated and disaggregated energy consumption will stabilise the country's inefficient spending and allow it to have a stable income stream in the short-term to raise capital for its long-term investments.
机译：这项研究调查了1980年至2009年期间突尼斯能源消耗与GDP之间的因果关系，包括石油，天然气和电力的总和总和。为了确定变量之间存在协整时的格兰杰因果关系，使用矢量误差校正模型（VECM）代替自回归模型（VAR）。在短期内，总能耗与GDP之间存在中立性假设。一方面GDP和石油消耗与另一方面天然气消耗之间也是如此。而从电力到GDP的单向检测结果被发现（增长假设）。从长远来看，总能源消耗以总量和分解形式（天然气和电力）会导致GDP（增长假说）。对于GDP的不利影响导致石油消耗（养护假设）。因此，突尼斯的政策制定者应优先考虑增加对总量和分类能耗的承诺，这将稳定该国的低效支出，并使该国在短期内拥有稳定的收入来源，以筹集长期投资的资金。

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  • 作者

    Mehdi Abid; Rafaa Mraihi;

  • 作者单位

    Higher Institute of Business Administration of Gafsa,University of Gafsa,Avenue Houcine Ben Kaddour Sidi Ahmed Zarrouk,2112 Gafsa, Tunisia and Laboratory of Management of Innovation and Sustainable Development,University of Sousse,Cite Erriadh - 4023 Sousse, Tunisia;

    Higher School of Digital Economy of Manouba,University of Manouba,2010 Manouba, Tunisia and Laboratory of Fiesta and Higher,School of Digital Economy of Tunisia,University of Manouba,2010 Manouba, Tunisia;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    causality; economic growth; energy consumption; error correction modelling; Tunisia;

    机译：因果关系经济增长;能源消耗;纠错建模;突尼斯;

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