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A system dynamics model for analyzing energy consumption and CO_2 emission in Iranian cement industry under various production and export scenarios

机译：在各种生产和出口情景下分析伊朗水泥行业能耗和CO_2排放的系统动力学模型

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摘要

Cement industry is one of the six energy intensive industries in Iran accounting for 15% of total energy consumption in the industrial sector. The sudden reform of energy prices in Iran is expected to have a great impact on production and energy consumption in this industry. In this paper, we present a system dynamics model to analyze energy consumption and CO_2 emission in Iranian cement industry under various production and export scenarios. We consider new energy prices to estimate possible energy demand by this industry over next 20 years. The model includes demand for cement, production, energy consumption and CO_2 emission in an integrated framework with emphasis on direct natural gas consumption. Producing blended cement, production using waste materials as alternative fuel, and wasted heat recovery for electricity generation in cement industry are three main corrective policies simulated and discussed herein. Simulation result show that complete removal of energy subsidy and implementation of corrective policies in the cement industry could potentially lead to reductions of 29% and 21%, respectively in natural gas and electricity consumptions and 22% reduction in CO_2 emission.
机译：水泥工业是伊朗六大能源密集型产业之一，占工业部门总能源消耗的15％。预计伊朗能源价格的突然改革将对该行业的生产和能源消耗产生巨大影响。在本文中，我们提供了一个系统动力学模型，用于分析伊朗水泥行业在各种生产和出口情景下的能耗和CO_2排放。我们考虑新能源价格，以估计该行业在未来20年内可能的能源需求。该模型将水泥需求，生产，能源消耗和CO_2排放纳入一个综合框架，重点是直接天然气消耗。混合水泥的生产，使用废料作为替代燃料的生产以及水泥工业中用于发电的废热回收是本文模拟和讨论的三个主要纠正政策。模拟结果表明，在水泥行业中完全取消能源补贴和实施纠正措施可能分别导致天然气和电力消耗分别减少29％和21％，以及CO_2排放减少22％。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2013年第7期|75-89|共15页
  • 作者

    Nastaran Ansari; Abbas Seifi;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran 15875-4413, Iran;

    Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran 15875-4413, Iran;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Cement industry; Energy consumption; System dynamics;

    机译：水泥行业;能源消耗;系统动态;

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