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Assessment of the required share for a stable EU electricity supply until 2050

机译：评估直到2050年欧盟稳定电力供应所需的份额

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摘要

Power system balancing will become increasingly important to secure a reliable European energy supply, as the share of intermittent supply increases (e.g. variable generation from wind and solar PV). This paper shows, in a quantitative way, the limitations of relying exclusively on flexibility in generation as the future shares of intermittent supply increase. Literature and data on intermittent supply and existing scenarios are reviewed. Costs related to increasing shares of intermittent supply are assessed. Quantifiable indicators relevant for electricity systems with a high share of intermittent supply are developed, namely (a) flexible supply (generation units that can quickly change output); (b) balancing need (which measures the needed flexibility of the power system as the difference between peak and off-peak residual demand (net of intermittent supply)). There is an externality of increasing the share of intermittent supply by increasing the power system balancing costs. If the cost of integrating intermittent generation was to be limited to about 25 billion EUR per year, which is an addition of 24% per unit intermittent generation cost, the intermittent supply share cannot reach more than 40% in the European power market. The final choice of an acceptable cost increase will be a political choice.
机译：随着间歇性供电的比例增加（例如风能和太阳能PV的可变发电量），电力系统平衡对于确保可靠的欧洲能源供应将变得越来越重要。本文定量地显示了随着间歇性供应的未来份额增加，仅依靠发电灵活性的局限性。审查了有关间歇性供应和现有方案的文献和数据。评估与增加间歇性供应份额有关的成本。制定了与间歇性供电比例较高的电力系统相关的可量化指标，即：（a）灵活供电（可以快速改变输出的发电机组）； （b）平衡需求（它衡量电力系统所需的灵活性，即高峰和非高峰剩余需求（间歇电源的净额）之差）。通过增加电力系统的平衡成本来增加间歇性供电份额的外部性。如果将间歇性发电的集成成本限制在每年约250亿欧元，即每单位间歇性发电成本增加24％，则间歇性供电份额在欧洲电力市场中不能超过40％。可接受的成本增加的最终选择将是政治选择。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2013年第8期|904-913|共10页
  • 作者

    Wietze Lise; Jeroen van der Laan; Frans Nieuwenhout; Koen Rademaekers;

  • 作者单位

    AF Mercados EMI, Ankara, Turkey,ECORYS Research and Consulting, Ankara, Turkey;

    Energy & Environment unit, ECORYS, Rotterdam, the Netherlands,Triple £ Consulting, Rotterdam, the Netherlands;

    Energy-Research Center of the Netherlands, ECN, Amsterdam, the Netherlands;

    Energy & Environment unit, ECORYS, Rotterdam, the Netherlands,Triple £ Consulting, Rotterdam, the Netherlands;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Energy Roadmap 20S0; European grids; Intermittent supply;

    机译：能源路线图20S0;欧洲电网;间歇性供应;

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