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Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import

机译：碳强度和能源安全约束对中国煤炭进口的影响

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摘要

Logistic and Gaussian Curves are adopted in this article to predict the coal production peak for Shanxi province, Henan province as well as the whole of China. According to the prediction based on the basic coal reserve data, coal production in China will reach its peak in the 2030 s while that of Shanxi and Henan provinces will be achieved by the 2040 s and 2020 s respectively. This article also assesses the influential factors of China's coal peak and revises the forecast of Lin and Liu (2010) about China's coal demand by taking the CO2 intensity constraint into consideration, and then predicting the corresponding coal import. The results show that China would import 983 million tonnes of coal in 2020; which takes as high as 27% of China's total coal consumption. This article demonstrates that even if China fulfills CO2 intensity constraint, the country's energy situation would still be grim as a result of its high GDP growth rate. Therefore, China has to consider both CO2 intensity and energy security constraints when establishing strategic energy plan. Finally, this article suggests an adjustment of energy structure by which those constraints can be addressed and further assesses the effect of the adjusted energy structure.
机译：本文采用Logistic曲线和高斯曲线来预测山西省，河南省乃至全国的煤炭产量峰值。根据基于基本煤炭储量数据的预测，中国的煤炭产量将在2030年代达到顶峰，而山西和河南的煤炭产量将分别在2040年代和2020年代达到。本文还评估了中国煤炭高峰的影响因素，并通过考虑CO2强度约束，然后预测了相应的煤炭进口量，修改了Lin和Liu（2010）对中国煤炭需求的预测。结果显示，到2020年，中国将进口9.83亿吨煤炭；到2020年，中国将进口9.83亿吨煤炭。占中国煤炭消费总量的27％。本文表明，即使中国满足了二氧化碳排放强度的限制，由于其较高的GDP增长率，该国的能源形势仍将严峻。因此，中国在制定战略能源计划时必须同时考虑二氧化碳排放强度和能源安全约束。最后，本文提出了一种能源结构调整方法，可以解决这些约束问题，并进一步评估调整后的能源结构的效果。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2012年第9期|p.137-147|共11页
  • 作者

    Boqiang Lin; Jianghua Liu; Yingchun Yang;

  • 作者单位

    New Huadu Business School, Minjiang University, Fuzhou 350108, China,China Center for Energy Economics Research, College of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China;

    China Center for Energy Economics Research, College of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China;

    School of International Business Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, no. 777, Cuoding Road, Shanghai 200433, PR China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    energy structure adjustment; CO_2 intensity constraint; energy security constraint;

    机译：能源结构调整;CO_2强度约束;能源安全约束;

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