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The coming sustainable energy transition: History strategies and outlook

机译：即将到来的可持续能源转型：历史策略与展望

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摘要

Facing global climate change and scarce petroleum supplies, the world must switch to sustainable energy systems. While historical transitions between major energy sources have occurred, most of these shifts lasted over a century or longer and were stimulated by resource scarcity, high labor costs, and technological innovations. The energy transition of the 21st century will need to be more rapid. Unfortunately, little is known about how to accelerate energy transitions. This article reviews past transitions and factors behind them, along with their time frames. Three modern case studies are discussed: Brazil, which shifted from an oil-based transportation system to one based on sugarcane-ethanol (success); France, which shifted from oil-fired electric power to nuclear power (success); and the United States, which attempted to shift from foreign oil to a mix of domestic energy resources (failure). Lessons from these attempts to govern energy transitions are discussed. Several policy instruments to accelerate a transition are identified, though even under ideal circumstances a global energy supply transition will be very slow. Given the need to simultaneously implement programs in countries with different political economies, a greater focus on energy efficiency, promotion of Smart Grids, and possibly a new treaty should yield more timely results.
机译：面对全球气候变化和石油供应短缺，世界必须转向可持续能源系统。尽管主要能源之间发生了历史性的转变，但大多数转变持续了一个世纪或更长时间，并且受到资源稀缺，高昂的劳动力成本和技术创新的刺激。 21世纪的能源转型将需要更加迅速。不幸的是，人们对如何加速能源转换知之甚少。本文回顾了过去的过渡及其背后的因素，以及其时限。讨论了三个现代案例研究：巴西，它已从基于石油的运输系统转变为基于甘蔗-乙醇的系统（成功）；法国，从燃油发电转向核电（成功）；美国则试图从外国石油转向混合国内能源资源（失败）。讨论了这些尝试控制能源过渡的经验教训。尽管即使在理想情况下，全球能源供应的过渡也将非常缓慢，但已确定了几种加快过渡的政策工具。鉴于需要在政治经济不同的国家同时实施计划，因此更加关注能源效率，推广智能电网以及可能签署新条约应会产生更及时的结果。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2011年第11期|p.7422-7431|共10页
  • 作者

    Barry D. Solomon; Karthik Krishna;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Social Sciences, Michigan Technological University, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, Ml 49931-1295, USA;

    AMI ε Advanced Technology Program Development, Colorado Springs Utilities, 11 IS, Cascade Avenue, Colorado Springs, CO 80903, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    energy efficiency; energy transition; smart grid;

    机译：能源效率;能量过渡智能电网;

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