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Optimal wind power deployment in Europe-A portfolio approach

机译：欧洲最佳风电部署-投资组合方法

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摘要

Geographic diversification of wind farms can smooth out the fluctuations in wind power generation and reduce the associated system balancing and reliability costs. The paper uses historical wind production data from five European countries (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, and Spain) and applies the Mean-Variance Portfolio theory to identify cross-country portfolios that minimise the total variance of wind production for a given level of production. Theoretical unconstrained portfolios show that countries (Spain and Denmark) with the best wind resource or whose size contributes to smoothing out the country output variability dominate optimal portfolios. The methodology is then elaborated to derive optimal constrained portfolios taking into account national wind resource potential and transmission constraints and compare them with the projected portfolios for 2020. Such constraints limit the theoretical potential efficiency gains from geographical diversification, but there is still considerable room to improve performance from actual or projected portfolios. These results highlight the need for more cross-border interconnection capacity, for greater coordination of European renewable support policies, and for renewable support mechanisms and electricity market designs providing locational incentives. Under these conditions, a mechanism for renewables credits trading could help aligning wind power portfolios with the theoretically efficient geographic dispersion.
机译：风电场的地域多元化可以消除风力发电的波动，并降低相关的系统平衡和可靠性成本。本文使用了来自五个欧洲国家（奥地利，丹麦，法国，德国和西班牙）的历史风能生产数据，并应用均值方差投资组合理论来确定越野组合，从而在给定水平下将风能生产的总方差最小化。生产。理论上不受限制的投资组合显示，拥有最佳风能资源或其规模有助于平滑国家产出波动性的国家（西班牙和丹麦）在最佳投资组合中占主导地位。然后详细阐述该方法，以得出考虑国家风能潜力和输电限制条件的最佳约束组合，并将其与2020年的预计组合进行比较。这种约束限制了地理多样化带来的理论上的潜在效率收益，但仍有很大的改进空间实际或预期投资组合的绩效。这些结果突出表明，需要更多的跨境互连能力，加强欧洲可再生能源支持政策的协调，可再生能源支持机制和电力市场设计提供位置激励。在这种情况下，可再生能源信用交易机制可以帮助使风电投资组合与理论上有效的地域分散性保持一致。

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