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An options approach to investment in a hydrogen infrastructure

机译：氢基础设施投资的一种选择方法

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This paper discusses the investments needed for the introduction of hydrogen as a transport fuel. Using option theory, we develop a model to calculate the value and optimal timing of a first commercial rollout of hydrogen vehicles in a larger area, taking Japan as a specific example. We find that the project is best viewed as an out-of-the-money call option with a small but positive option value. We estimate this value at approximately 1.5 billion euros, without tax advantages. An important finding is that the moment of investment is first and foremost determined by the maturing of the technology. By contrast, the investment timing is not as much affected by deployment strategy as is frequently thought: in particular, whether or not the hydrogen retail infrastructure is introduced smoothly does not sensitively influence the investment timing. Fairly independent of parameter assumptions, the project value at the moment of deployment is negative for the retailer and positive for the car manufacturer. This implies the need for a negotiated partnership. Finally, we assess various forms of government support, e.g. subsidies or tax cuts. Looking at the effectiveness of this support spending in relation to the advancement of hydrogen deployment, we find, again because investment timing is primarily determined by technology maturation, that tax incentives are relatively ineffective. We are lead to believe that government subsidy for technology development is a more effective means to achieve earlier investment, as faster production cost reductions for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles lead to accelerated investment.
机译：本文讨论了引入氢作为运输燃料所需的投资。使用期权理论，我们开发了一个模型来计算更大范围内首次大规模推广氢燃料汽车的价值和最佳时机，以日本为例。我们发现，最好将项目视为具有较小但积极的期权价值的非现金认购期权。我们估计此价值约为15亿欧元，没有税收优惠。一个重要发现是，投资的时机首先是由技术的成熟决定的。相比之下，投资时机不受部署策略影响的程度不像人们通常认为的那样：特别是，氢零售基础设施是否顺利引入不会敏感地影响投资时机。完全独立于参数假设，部署时的项目价值对零售商而言为负，而对汽车制造商而言为正。这意味着需要经过协商的伙伴关系。最后，我们评估各种形式的政府支持，例如补贴或减税。考察这种支持支出与氢部署进展有关的有效性，我们再次发现，由于投资时机主要取决于技术成熟度，因此税收激励措施相对无效。我们被认为是，政府对技术开发的补贴是实现早期投资的更有效手段，因为氢和燃料电池汽车的生产成本降低更快导致投资加速。

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