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US long-term energy intensity: Backcast and projection

机译：美国长期能源强度：预测与预测

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Energy intensity of the economy is often modeled as being determined by the combined effect of a fixed price elasticity of demand, and an exogenously specified, fixed technical change parameter denoted as the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI). Typically, the AEEI rate is set to 0.5-1.5% improvement per annum. Here, we study historic aggregate energy intensity trends for the US from 1954 to 1994. We show that the historic trends are inconsistent with an autonomous model of improved energy efficiency—especially when the model is used to inform policies that impact energy prices. As an alternative we propose a model of price-induced efficiency, n, in which aggregate energy intensity trends respond to changes in energy prices beyond price elasticity of demand ε. Our exercise reveals that the aggregate price elasticity of energy demand of the US economy has declined by roughly 15% over the past four decades. But beyond this decline, bringing our simulations and historical data into close correspondence requires π to change sign before and after 1974. Before 1974, after accounting for price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing less energy efficient. After 1974, after accounting for the price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing more energy efficient. Furthermore, since 1984, the rate of energy efficiency gain has been declining. When projections of long-term energy use are compared, those with a price-induced energy efficiency formulation generate significantly more price sensitive energy use and emissions trajectories. When in the business as usual scenario energy prices are expected to be rising, climate policies involve lower shadow carbon prices with π than with AEEI formulations. In scenarios where energy prices are relatively flat, energy intensity rises leading to CO_2 emissions far higher than standard business as usual projections utilizing AEEI assumptions.
机译：经济的能源强度通常被建模为由需求的固定价格弹性与外部指定的固定技术变化参数（称为自主能效改进（AEEI））的综合效应所确定。通常，AEEI率设置为每年提高0.5-1.5％。在这里，我们研究了1954年至1994年美国历史性的总能源强度趋势。我们证明了历史趋势与提高能源效率的自主模型不一致，尤其是当该模型用于指导影响能源价格的政策时。作为替代方案，我们提出了一个价格诱导效率模型n，其中总的能源强度趋势对能源价格的变化做出反应，超出了需求价格弹性ε。我们的研究表明，在过去的40年中，美国经济的能源需求总价格弹性下降了约15％。但是，要使这种下降不止于此，将我们的模拟和历史数据紧密联系起来就需要π在1974年之前和之后改变符号。1974年之前，考虑到需求的价格弹性之后，经济的能源效率正在下降。 1974年之后，在考虑了需求的价格弹性之后，经济增长了更多的能源效率。此外，自1984年以来，能源效率的提高速度一直在下降。当比较长期能源使用的预测时，那些采用价格诱导的能效公式的能源产生的价格敏感能源使用和排放轨迹要大得多。在照常运转的情况下，预计能源价格将上涨，与AEEI公式相比，气候政策涉及的π影子碳价格更低。在能源价格相对持平的情况下，能源强度上升导致CO_2排放量远远高于使用AEEI假设的常规业务预测。

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