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An exploratory scenario analysis of strategic pathways towards a sustainable electricity system of the drought-stricken Sao Francisco River Basin

机译：探讨干旱灾区可持续电力系统战略途径的探索性情景分析

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摘要

The Sao Francisco River Basin in Brazil's Northeast region suffered from a serious multi-year drought, which started in 2012. This drought was characterized by long periods of water stress, variability and unpredictability of levels and flows of rivers and reservoirs, decreases in hydropower generation, and rising of conflicts between agricultural and electrical sectors. Besides, the electricity sector faced a crisis due to its dependency on hydroelectricity generation. Applying a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can contribute to resolve such conflicts. Particular challenges are establishing transparent rules for water level management at the dams and securing electricity supply. Ultimately, identifying options to invest in sustainable power sources may positively impact the regional electricity matrix. We used Soft Systems Methodology to structure the decision-making context and set the main objectives to be considered in the MCDA. Different scenarios of reservoir management were simulated using the Soil and Water Integrated Model and Incomplete Pairwise Comparison, while bibliographic research and expert interviews led to the selection of indicators for structuring the MCDA. We present projections for hydropower generation and meeting of water demands of further users, based on two climate change projections. The driest scenario shows a reduction in hydropower generation, indicating the necessity to reconfigure the composition of electricity sources, considering economic, technical and social-environmental constraints. These elements of the structuring phase are prerequisites for the evaluation phase of the MCDA.
机译：巴西圣弗朗西斯科河流域在巴西东北地区遭受严重的多年干旱，2012年开始。这种干旱的特点是长期的水分压力，河流和水库水平和流动的不可预测性，水电一致性降低以及农业和电器扇区之间的冲突的提升。此外，由于其对水力发电的依赖，电力部门面临着危机。应用多标准决策分析（MCDA）可以有助于解决此类冲突。特别挑战正在建立水位管理的透明规则，并确保电力供应。最终，识别投资可持续电源的选项可能会对区域电力矩阵产生积极影响。我们使用软系统方法来构建决策背景，并在MCDA中设置要考虑的主要目标。使用土壤和水综合模型和不完全成对比较模拟了不同的水库管理场景，虽然书目研究和专家访谈导致了用于构建MCDA的指标。根据两个气候变化预测，我们对进一步使用者的水电生成和水需求会议的预测。最干燥的情景显示了水电站的减少，表明考虑到经济，技术和社会环境限制的必要性。结构阶段的这些元素是MCDA评估阶段的先决条件。

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